Has Reform peaked?

The Clacton voting patterns may shed some light on this soon enough.

I think the answer is peaked and dropping.

Not sure about that.
There are 34 candidates.
Most are independent.

To maremia post

Farage will of course be returned, but my bet with a vastly reduced majority.

Most of what this slippery eel has been up to has yet to be revealed, and as the revelations appear his stock will gradually disappear.

I suspect he will once again disappear from politics.

Farage and Polanski, two of a kind. Chancers who got lucky

Just so. But Farage has been amazingly lucky given his history.

Polenski appears as one of the world innocents - in way above his abilities.

They are very different characters.

Well Farage has a clear history of starting parties off and then they have faded away or splits have happened. In the meantime he has made a great deal of money as an MP (leaving aside dodgy gifts) with GB news and other ventures and guest appearances here and there when he was supposed to be working as an MP.
I think there is a real chance he will repeat the pattern of the past.

I think thats very perceptive WWM in terms of Polanski. Bright, he does care, but not enough political experience to make best choices for the Greens.

Many I know still stay with the Greens because goodness knows we need action on climate change:

but that lack of experience is not doing good service to the key messages of the "Greens"

Well, we’ve got a new PM now who is going to make everything better and wonderful. No need for anyone else.

Independent... or Reform supporters, fancythat!

I am still quite puzzled as to why the media, which has given him the very easiest of rides for more than a decade, has turned against him.

M0nica

Farage and Polanski, two of a kind. Chancers who got lucky

Maybe, but two entirely different people, I don’t class them in the same bracket. In my opinion Polanski’s misdemeanours are foolish and he is totally out of his depth.

For many years Farage has been involved in politics, he has been dishonest and divisive and caused huge rifts in our country.

For me, they are not cut from the same cloth.

Kandinsky

Well, we’ve got a new PM now who is going to make everything better and wonderful. No need for anyone else.

Well, to be fair, the same sort of belief seemed to motivate a great many Reform voters; Nigel was going to make everything better. It was, if you like, an equally irrational belief and one that is easily transferable from one politician/party to another.

Where poor old Nige has lost out is that he’s never been in a position where he can make everything better so he’s lost the voters who are happy to transfer that belief to someone who is in a position to do so.

Reflecting on every election of my reasonably long lifetime has usually produced the conclusion that the winner is the one who has convinced enough voters that they are going to make everything better for them; the voters themselves don’t really care how the winner intends to do it.

I recall all too well when he was an MEP that instead of representing his constituents that group just stood up and turned their backs on the EU assembly instead of arguing a point. and the lies on the campaign buses promising the earth just as he is now with the "not possibles".

I agree MaizieD
Reform voters really couldn’t care less who ‘stops the boats’ and gets tough on illegal migrants. Andy Burnham or Andy Pandy - couldn’t care less, as long as it’s done.

MaizieD

I am still quite puzzled as to why the media, which has given him the very easiest of rides for more than a decade, has turned against him.

Good question.

Carole Cadwalladr and Peter Jukes have been writing about the relationship between George Cottrell and the major players in Reform for years. If it looks like money laundering and smells like money laundering … Now, all of sudden, the Sunday Times Insight team and various other outlets are on the same trail and it’s big news. It always was.

My guess is that Farage has made some big enemies within the Reform movement over the last couple of years who are now spilling the tea. Stories of infighting are rife.

A few weeks ago, you linked to that Rob Lammas article for Conservative Home that gave his insider’s view of the chaos without the party and the rivalries and resentments between old UKiP activists, Reform incomers and Tory defectors.

I think Zia Yusuf has been and is a hugely divisive figure. Someone who came from nowhere with a relatively small bag of cash, isn’t an MP (allegedly not allowed to stand) and now behaves as if he’s the future Home Secretary. Dan Hodges has described Yusuf as “protected” by Farage. Why would that be?

Peaked and falling - I agree, both Reform UK as a party and Farage's personal poll ratings.

Unless Farage loses the Clacton by election (which would lead to further self sabotage and self combustion?) the result in itself will say little. The turn out I suspect will be low- and also possible Farage will have a lower vote capture than 2024. But it's not a typical MP vote and Farage will have myriad statements ready to spin the result in an effort to lose less face than he already has.

I think Farage is very different from Polanski and poses far more of a risk to UK democracy.

Farage has always been very divisive and as Reform has grown and Conservative MPS have crossed to Reform, e.g. Jenrick, chancers will see opportunity for self promotion as internal factions inevitably ensue. That will prove difficult due to the way Reform UK is set up as a Ltd company with shares and the rules they have in place to depose party leader. I think it is more likely Farage would walk away- possibly for a negotiated £sum not publicly declared? Don't forget Musk supports Lowe in Reform UK, and Lowe has made an offer to work together....

Why is the press turning? In my view because they smell a bigger story than the same old, same old Farage/Reform disruption and agitation. Corruption, Reform UK infighting and potential downfall of Farage is simply the bigger story with eventual schadenfreude the prize.

Newspapers like the Sunday Times and Guardian are hardly likely to have broken the law as Farage counter claims (e.g. accessing his bank accounts). I think it's more likely they have evidence, secured by legitimate investigation in the public interest, and have chosen to drip feed piece meal via news articles in tandem response to Farage's response, behaviour, actions and increasingly narcissistic decisions.

I did always think that Farage is a snake oil salesman, but democracy and all that kind of thing sometimes means that a snake oil salesman gets voted into mainstream politics. And we can see how that has played out in the US.
Thing is both Farage and Trump have form, neither is interested in anything other than making a quick buck - not for the ordinary man or woman in the street but to line their own pockets - and has ever been thus.

And I must add the media has no moral compass period. So they will big up a populist leader like Farage to increase their readership. Once people start to lose interest in Farage due to dodgy deals he is dropped like the proverbial hot potato.

He'll win, and pretty easily.
When even Owen Jones is saying he can barely find voters who will vote for Binface, it's over.