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Has Reform peaked?

(42 Posts)
Cumbrianmale56 Thu 06-Aug-26 08:02:22

I notice Reform UK has gone from 30% in the polls to 23% now. I think revelations about Farage's business dealings and personality have damaged the party, and Labour electing a Northern leader is reducing support for Reform in the North.
While I can understand the frustrations with the two main parties and their unsuccessful governments, Farage is someone who promises too much like sweeping tax cuts and whosr party doesn't seem straight up.
Also on the other side of the spectrum, the Greens seem to be falling back from 17% in some polls in May to 10% now. Perhaps voters have seen that both Reform and the Greens are too extreme and have questionable leaders.

MaizieD Thu 06-Aug-26 11:58:13

Fallingstar

And I must add the media has no moral compass period. So they will big up a populist leader like Farage to increase their readership. Once people start to lose interest in Farage due to dodgy deals he is dropped like the proverbial hot potato.

I think it's media led, rather than media following. After all, there was no real interest in Farage's dodgy dealings, which have been reported by not RW journalists, until the Sunday Times article was published.

MaizieD Thu 06-Aug-26 12:00:56

Kandinsky

I agree MaizieD
Reform voters really couldn’t care less who ‘stops the boats’ and gets tough on illegal migrants. Andy Burnham or Andy Pandy - couldn’t care less, as long as it’s done.

I don't think Burnham has said enough about 'the boats' to attract hard core Reform supporters. The ones who have shifted are more interested in potential improvements to their lives than they are in migrants.

MT62 Thu 06-Aug-26 12:04:07

Kandinsky

Well, we’ve got a new PM now who is going to make everything better and wonderful. No need for anyone else.

🙄

LemonJam Thu 06-Aug-26 12:10:43

MT62

Kandinsky

Well, we’ve got a new PM now who is going to make everything better and wonderful. No need for anyone else.

🙄

No PM over the centuries have made everything better and wonderful of any party 🤷‍♀️

Each party has their chosen priorities and we will see how Burham achieves against his plans over the next three years.

I'm hopeful and feel absolutely confident he will do a better job than Farage or Reform UK could ever do, with less damage.

Visgir1 Thu 06-Aug-26 12:31:50

I think Reform has plateaued, it will be interesting to see the turn out for the Clacton election. I heard the list of potential candidates is 3 foot long!

Also be interesting to see if those MP's who switched sides remain MP's after the next Election.

LemonJam Thu 06-Aug-26 12:33:13

Reform struggling to secure headlines and press attention during its current woes that dod not focus on financial so as to deflect from questions about finances. But this topic misses what is already being done and achieved. Also is not persuading the public like this time last year?

Yusuf has said this morning Reform UK will jail directors of companies employing illegal workers for up to five years. Yusuf says executives of companies which employ illegal workers will face up to five years in prison. A Reform government will also impose “crippling financial consequences” on firms – 10% of their global turnover, he says.

Yusuf says: “Corporate CEOs have been making a fortune by hiring illegal workers and undermining British youngsters.Reform will jail them and stop illegal working for good - we will stand up for British workers. Under Reform UK, Britain will no longer be a soft touch. We will establish the toughest penalties anywhere in the world to end illegal working and stand up for British workers.

Which CEOs have actually been making a fortune hiring illegal workers he didn’t name any?

LemonJam Thu 06-Aug-26 12:36:46

I wonder if Yusuf is aware of how the Labour government has successfully already scaled up immigration enforcement raids and arrests in the past 2 years? The government has secured record levels of raids and arrests while closing legal loopholes that previously exempted casual and gig-economy employers from right-to-work checks. Same enforcement services what will Reform change? It's not global companies that are failing to carry out employment checks! So apart from a threat of jail ( not going to happen if said company had processes in place for employment screening and CEO relied on HR to carry out such checks). It's not large companies that are employing illegal workers anyway!

Enforcement and Raids
Surge in operations: Immigration enforcement activity reached record highs, with a substantial year-on-year increase in enforcement raids (up over 70%) and a sharp surge in illegal-working arrests.

Targeted industries Authorities have focused proactive operations on high-risk sectors prone to undocumented labor, such as hospitality, car washes, construction, and delivery services.

Closing Gig-Economy Loopholes
Mandatory checks: Legislation advanced through the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration measures legally requires gig economy and platform-based companies (such as courier networks, food delivery, and private hire sectors) to carry out right-to-work checks for the first time.

Subcontractor accountability The rules extend compliance duties to cover casual, temporary, and self-employed individual subcontractors working on behalf of a business, removing exemptions previously exploited by rogue firms.

Penalties and Sanctions
Severe fines: Enforced civil penalties reach up to £45,000 per illegal worker for a first-time breach and up to £60,000 for repeat offences.

Corporate disruption Unscrupulous employers already face severe administrative and criminal sanctions, including forced business closures, sponsor licence revocations, director disqualifications, and prison sentences of up to five years for responsible parties.

Reform needs to get their act together to survive. AB needs to make sure his party are responding to such statements from Reform, on this and others matters, shouting out what it is already achieving.








LizzieDrip Thu 06-Aug-26 13:23:40

I too think Reform has peaked and are now on a downward trajectory.

Of course Farage will be voted in again in Clacton but, whichever way you look at it, he will have lost. “I won against a bin” is hardly winning is it!

That said, I love Count Binface! He’d get my vote all day long🗑️🚮👏

Wyllow3 Thu 06-Aug-26 13:41:27

Yes. 🤣.

alita Thu 06-Aug-26 13:41:37

I don't understand why Farage gets so much airtime! His latest 'policy' using the Royal Navy to return illegal immigrants to France has so many plot holes a child could see through it. Yet, it features on prime time news again and again as if it were really a serious and feasible plan!

Cumbrianmale56 Thu 06-Aug-26 13:45:12

LemonJam

I also don't think Reform UK will survive in the medium to long term without Farage- although it will try.

Badenoch has said the defected Conservative MPs would not be allowed back. Jenrick will do whatever he can to become Reform leader- but of a sinking ship. There is no real alternative other than Rupert Lowe (as a result of huge injection of funding from Musk) but I cant see him securing the same level of public support as Farage previously achieved.

Reform is Farage to most people, as the other leading members barely figure. Without Farage, Reform will probably fizzle out. You're probably right about Restore Britain, Rupert Lowe isn't in the same league as Farage for promoting himself and the party will remain a right wing fringe party.
I think in recent months Kemi Badenoch has become a much stronger figure and has ruled out any deals with Reform to get into power, as possibly Farage could force a merger and destroy her party. She has been savvy enough to see through Farage and has spoken out against him several times.

MT62 Thu 06-Aug-26 13:48:18

Not sure about that, all these people landing in Ceuta, maybe a wake up call for people to vote them in.

Susieq62 Thu 06-Aug-26 13:55:50

MT62
You do realise that the Cueta issue was set up don’t you? Must people have no idea where it is! Strange how Zia Yusuf was there so soon . I smell big rats at the expense of cheap lives .

MayBee70 Thu 06-Aug-26 13:58:52

I’m still, in general, avoiding the news but blow me, flicked on Sky News and there was Reform talking about immigration yet again. Why do they get so much coverage?

alita Thu 06-Aug-26 13:59:32

Susieq62

MT62
You do realise that the Cueta issue was set up don’t you? Must people have no idea where it is! Strange how Zia Yusuf was there so soon . I smell big rats at the expense of cheap lives .

Me too, very odd situation, people wandering across dressed in shorts and tshirts, no luggage, no bags, perfectly cheerful it was all some kind of stunt.

MT62 Thu 06-Aug-26 14:04:46

Susieq62

MT62
You do realise that the Cueta issue was set up don’t you? Must people have no idea where it is! Strange how Zia Yusuf was there so soon . I smell big rats at the expense of cheap lives .

Really! I can’t see that one, tbh!