The Autumn Spike?

Case numbers were higher yesterday. Can’t say I’m feeling very optimistic.

Everything we're doing is completely bonkers. Cases should be going down, not up, or stabilising at this ridiculously high figure.

I fear that with allowing do many children and young people to become infected we are storing up a big problem for the future with large numbers potentially disabled by Long Covid.

My DGSs nursery is actively discouraging them from wearing masks. My GS is fine wearing one so why insist on him not wearing it? Mad

I was away this weekend so out of my normal routine and area.
I noticed in the hotel only the odd one or two people wore masks most including myself didn’t bother
In the shops there were far fewer about and also on public transport they were very few and far between
But most people gave others distance and most places were well ventilated especially the bus we were on it was an open topper plenty of fresh air
The amount of positive cases to me is now irrelevant I know plenty who have tested positive and have had worse symptoms with a common cold It’s the amount of hospitalisation and deaths if the vaccine is doing its job then no problem Of course there is a quite a large number of unvaccinated who are probably likely to pick it up anyway
Masks probably can be helpful but it appeared a great number of the population have had enough of them
My granddaughter is at nursery and no way would she wear a mask and quite frankly her mum wouldn’t want her to

Well, our family have been completely COVID free since day one.

Then last week........
DGS's friend came round to play, both Y7, and two days later the friend went down with COVID. Last Monday, DDiL, who is immune compromised, went down with it, thankfully she was fully vaccinated and, although unwell for some days is now beginning to recover. On Friday DGD, Y9 tested positive, but symptomless and today DGS has followed suit.

I think DGc's experience of COVID is likely to be more common than long COVID, although some children will get it.

What is puzzling me is why, after six months of relaxations, when DGC and DS and DDil have been going to school and work, visiting friends, restarting activities and traveling to work (DDiL on public transport). One or other them must have come in contact with the illness at least once - DGC have both been in school bubbles that were quarantined because some in the group went down with COVID, then all of a sudden they go down with it now and everyone catches it

There are no rules with covid, it's an enigma. Some people catch it and some don't. Some people really are super spreaders and can infect a group while someone else doesn't seem to pass it on. They way it infects people is also so varied, long covid, hospitalisation or just like a bad cold. Very strange virus and that is why we can't get our heads around it.

A company my husband works for (he is SE) have said their employees need to go into work even if they have been in contact with a covid case or anyone in their household has covid!! It sounds bonkers

I agree with your post Rosie
I know far more people with CoviD now than I ever have but no one seems very ill most seem to have a fluey cold so I can only presume that the vaccinations are working big time
My granddaughter spent a whole weekend with three friends One who had CoviD but hadn’t told them, no others in the group got it ( they had all been double vaxed )

From what I understand, deaths and hospital admissions are down but cases are up. I assume these are mainly young people who aren’t so likely to need hospital care or die.

We mustn’t forget there are around five million people who have not come forward for their vaccine.
The more testing that’s done, the more cases will be found.
I understand we test far more than other countries.

Having said all that, the vaccination programme has been a huge success, and we must also remember that hospitalisations and deaths are still low.

How much importance should we place on the number of deaths too, bearing in mind that a number of those would have died from something else, in other words died with covid and not of it.

All things considered I think we are in a pretty good position.

As I am clinical vulnerable I still wear a mask everywhere and avoid being near anyone who hasn’t got one on. I just don’t understand people who don’t want to wear a mask, it’s my choice, said a man I asked to step away from me in a queue who didn’t have a mask. My reply was a very sharp and it’s my choice to stay safe and not have unmasked people breathing down my neck. I have now had a 3rd jab and in 8 weeks will have a booster, but I am not taking any chances as my life could be on the line if I catch it.

Since his illness DH can no longer wear a mask. He has enough difficulty breathing without one. However I always wear one, when appropriate so that when we are together, I hope people will realise that his spirit isnwilling but the flesh is weak. Mind you he often sounds like Darth Vader, so I think people can hear he has a problem.

I am sorry Monica about dh breathing problems and I can quite understand why he doesn’t where a mask, that is fair enough. But there are people around not wearing them because, why, they can’t be bothered, it’s their right etc. In the meantime people like your dh and I are one of the many who are put at risk.

Does that mean you’ll have had 4 Covid vaccinations Barmeyoldbat? I didn’t know there were 4 available.

I don't wear a mask now unless it's somewhere very crowded I absolutely hate wearing them and find them very uncomfortable.
I have had both vacinations and I trust them to do their job or there would have been no point in having them in the first place

Yes, I didnt know any thing about a 4th vaccination, I thought I had just been called up early for a booster. It seems if you have an immune system that has been weakened for various reasons then you have an extra shot. All my medical conditions are auto immune, including my lung condition and I have been on steroids, now only a very dose, for many,many years and this has put me in the category for this extra dose. It’s worth googling 3rd vaccination shot.

Daisymae

Schools resumed a few weeks ago, a lot of people are back in the office. Masks are not required and a lot of people seem to have ditched them. I did think that there would be a big uptick, looking at the forecasts, but this does not seem to have happened. Fingers crossed it stays that way. However a number of people have had negative tests despite having symptoms and being in contact with a positive case. I also read that 53% of PCR are giving a false negative when taken more than 4 days after symptoms first show. Not sure where I'm going with this but with a bit of luck we can be a little bit optimistic? Or is there an issue with the testing?

You are right that PCR tests are more likely to show false negatives as soon as symptoms show. Their accuracy on the day a person is infected is almost 100%, but it could be days before symptoms show. That's why there needs to be a multi-pronged approach. Reliance on testing alone won't work.

JenniferEccles

We mustn’t forget there are around five million people who have not come forward for their vaccine.
The more testing that’s done, the more cases will be found.
I understand we test far more than other countries.

Having said all that, the vaccination programme has been a huge success, and we must also remember that hospitalisations and deaths are still low.

How much importance should we place on the number of deaths too, bearing in mind that a number of those would have died from something else, in other words died with covid and not of it.

All things considered I think we are in a pretty good position.

On average, those who died with/of Covid lost ten years of life. Yes, we all die of something, but make no mistake that Covid was the cause of their death.

FWIW. Vaccinated people can get Covid but hopefully less severely than the unvaccinated of the unvaccinated there will already be those who now have natural immunity from a dose of the virus. My daughter is unvaccinated, had Covid and bought herself an anti-body test which was positive, so she now has natural immunity.

I understand that anti-bodies built by the body tend to work better than those produced by vaccines so as Rosie 59 says, I’m not too worried unless hospitalisation and deaths increase.

There will be a small minority of people who have long Covid just as many people suffer from the after effects of other viruses, such as ME

“What causes M.E.?

The causes of M.E. are still being investigated. Emerging evidence indicates that there are likely to be a number of factors involved and that there may be a number of different types or sub-groups of the illness.

There is evidence that certain infections can trigger the illness. Many are viruses but M.E. may be triggered in other ways.”

For a considerable length of time, ME was denied as a condition although it has now been recognised. It seems to me that Long Covid is very similar.

As has been said before we have to live with this just as we do with the myriad of viral infections in our world.

Here is a link to info about ME. www.actionforme.org.uk/get-information/what-is-me/what-does-me-feel-like/

But we don't have to live with anything. If there were a will, Covid be stamped out. FWIW Many many more people are even now suffering from Long Covid than suffer from ME.

Covid cases among children and YP are sky high here with schools having to close, partly because of the children themselves, and partly because of staff isolating because their own children are ill. One school had 300 cases - a small rural comprehensive. About half of the students.

What is clear is that the vaccine has been working in preventing spread amongst older people who have the highest vaccine uptake.

There are still many going into hospital and helping to cause a backlog for other conditions that need treating. So why don’t people do everything they can to stop it spreading. And yes I have been vaccinated but if I get it there is a huge chance I will end up in hospital. There are still 30, 000 people a day still getting it for goodness sake why.

If only children had been vaccinated in the school holidays and instead of freedom day people had continued to wear masks and socially distance themselves. ie the common sense approach