Why Does Oil Fluctuate Just On The Whims And Wishes Of Trump?

mae13

As of this morning (30/04/2026) oil has jumped to $125 a barrel because the White House says the Iran blockade, by America, may last for months.

But by this time tomorrow there will probably be a diktat from HRH Donald saying the opposite. And the stock markets will be on the move again.

Who gives him this unstoppable power?

The us markets are looking very healthy this morning.
Nothing to do with oil but tech stocks.

The world runs on oil and 20% of it goes through the Straits of Hormuz.

When a key commoddity is in short supply or potential short supplier, those who trade it or buy it direct hurry to build up their supplies, against a shortage. More people competing to buy a diminished or potentially diminishing source of supply drives the price up. When oil prices go up so does the price of electricity and gas. Gas because it too will have its supply limited by the closed Strait, electricity because much of it is used to make electricity.

As I said the world runs on oil that means, as well as you and me, all the companies that make or do anything except lie in a corner and look at the sky, will be using energy, whether gas oil or electricity and that will cost them more, so they will need to put prices up, which leads to inflastion and if wages do not go up means that people have to cut their spending back to concentrate on buying essentials.

This means companies will do their best to keep price rises low to keep sales up, but profits will be lower and investors will be worried about whether companies will go bust, so they are less willing to buy shares and that means the prices of shares drop to try and attract them.

Share prices in the short term tend to fluctuate with Investor sentiment, the long term patter, is a better guide to the state of the economy.

I’ve read several times that there’s a lot of insider trading going on, people making money out of misery.

Why have BP's profits doubled since the start of the Iran war.? I don't suppose they are the only ones either.

SueDonim

I’ve read several times that there’s a lot of insider trading going on, people making money out of misery.

Yes. 🤬

sodapop

Why have BP's profits doubled since the start of the Iran war.? I don't suppose they are the only ones either.

BP's profits have doubled because the oil they are selling now was bought at pre-war prices but they are selling it at the price they will have to pay in future (plus their profit, of course) now that the war has caused an increase in prices.

Their current profit will be based on the pre-war price that they paid.

They are shorting the market. But I do not understand anything past that. I am useless when it comes to numbers.

www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp

This is different than the insider trading that has been happening.

I do keep reading that Kushner etc have made billions.

Total corruption.

sodapop

Why have BP's profits doubled since the start of the Iran war.? I don't suppose they are the only ones either.

Because when the price of oil goes up they make bigger profits.

Its like the housing market, the price of oil is decided by supply and demand

It's called the free market aka Thatcherism. Make what you can while you can and the plebs don't matter.

keepingquiet

It's called the free market aka Thatcherism. Make what you can while you can and the plebs don't matter.

That's about the sum of it, keepingquiet. Free markets have no altruistic concerns about the wellbeing of its customers.

keepingquiet

It's called the free market aka Thatcherism. Make what you can while you can and the plebs don't matter.

The free market dates to thousand's of years before Mrs Thatcher.

we are all being fooled but the poorest are being affected the most, wherever we are in the world

M0nica

keepingquiet

It's called the free market aka Thatcherism. Make what you can while you can and the plebs don't matter.

The free market dates to thousand's of years before Mrs Thatcher.

Like slavery, for example?

M0nica

keepingquiet

It's called the free market aka Thatcherism. Make what you can while you can and the plebs don't matter.

The free market dates to thousand's of years before Mrs Thatcher.

So it did, MOnica. And the greater part of the world's population lived in what we would consider today to be abject poverty and died young from malnutrition and unchecked disease. It still happens in many countries.

But most of our generation, in our country, were brought up during the halcyon period of the post WW2 mixed economy' which provided a comprehensive NHS, free tertiary education, reasonably priced adult education, state run utilities which provided a decent service at a decent price, a cheap and extensive passenger transport system, decent council housing, and welfare intended, not to punish, but to tide people over during periods of hardship.

Life wasn't entirely rosy for everyone, there was still deprivation and poverty, but there were great improvements in in wellbeing and standards of living.

It was Thatcher's initiative to allow free market access to state services and to 'shrink the state' by privatising as much as she possibly could, which was continued by later governments, which has brought the country to the state it is in now. Strangely, 'free markets' seem to have returned, slowly but surely, us to what existed for centuries. Enormous wealth for the few and increasing difficulty and hardship for the rest...

SueDonim

I’ve read several times that there’s a lot of insider trading going on, people making money out of misery.

Yes. Sickening.

M0nica

keepingquiet

It's called the free market aka Thatcherism. Make what you can while you can and the plebs don't matter.

The free market dates to thousand's of years before Mrs Thatcher.

I was just thinking that it wasn't Mrs Thatcher who invented free markets!

I thought it was more like two or three hundred years, though, although perhaps it existed but didn't have a name before that time.

Allira

M0nica

keepingquiet

It's called the free market aka Thatcherism. Make what you can while you can and the plebs don't matter.

The free market dates to thousand's of years before Mrs Thatcher.

I was just thinking that it wasn't Mrs Thatcher who invented free markets!

I thought it was more like two or three hundred years, though, although perhaps it existed but didn't have a name before that time.

So, do you approve of it?

Does longevity equal good?

Are you happy with its consequences?

The free market has existed since two groups met p and bartered one group's cattle for the other groups con. Who did best from the deal would depend on which item was most scarce each year.

corn not con

Free market in modern economic terms simply describes a capitalist economy with minimum government interference.

A totally free market in capitalist terms is known as laissez faire, but this can’t exist.

Being somewhat paranoid perhaps, a part of me wonders exactly why Trump has really got involved in this war. Follow the money ?

M0nica

The free market has existed since two groups met p and bartered one group's cattle for the other groups con. Who did best from the deal would depend on which item was most scarce each year.

I know what a 'free market' is. The 'barter' story is very questionable.

But, leaving that aside, due you contend that the effects of them haven't been as I described?

Free market in modern economic terms simply describes a capitalist economy with minimum government interference.

How dies that differ from laissez faire?