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Why Does Oil Fluctuate Just On The Whims And Wishes Of Trump?

(55 Posts)
mae13 Thu 30-Apr-26 08:54:17

As of this morning (30/04/2026) oil has jumped to $125 a barrel because the White House says the Iran blockade, by America, may last for months.

But by this time tomorrow there will probably be a diktat from HRH Donald saying the opposite. And the stock markets will be on the move again.

Who gives him this unstoppable power?

David49 Fri 01-May-26 09:38:04

Whitewavemark2

Free market in modern economic terms simply describes a capitalist economy with minimum government interference.

A totally free market in capitalist terms is known as laissez faire, but this can’t exist.

Oil has never been a free market it has always been controlled by a cartel, in peacetime OPEC set the minimum price, governments set the minimum price in any state by either subsidies or taxation.

Most commodities are traded globally, uncertainly or supply shortages causes buyers to offer more to secure supply they need, this happens hour by hour every day prices can double or halve in a few hours.

Price increase are a consequence of Trumps Iran war because other oil fields will become economic, supply will be replaced at a higher price. If Hormuz is closed for a long period within a year all the oil will be replaced by other sources at a higher price.
It's not financial meltdown it's inconvenient we will travel less because oil is too expensive, some goods will cost more, maybe you buy less.
On the other hand oil companies will pay more tax so this could be used to help those that are most affected

Ziplok Fri 01-May-26 09:43:36

He and his mates are making a tidy profit out of all these fluctuations in the price of oil.

butterandjam Fri 01-May-26 10:44:54

his billionaire pals who make a fortune trading Oil stocks as the market rises and falls.

Trump is all about making money for himself at any cost to his own country.

MaizieD Fri 01-May-26 11:00:03

Ziplok

He and his mates are making a tidy profit out of all these fluctuations in the price of oil.

There's been something of a hint of insider trading...

BlessedArt Fri 01-May-26 11:15:41

SueDonim

I’ve read several times that there’s a lot of insider trading going on, people making money out of misery.

100%.

keepingquiet Fri 01-May-26 11:18:14

These people are crooks, pure and simple. The more we work to end our dependence on these so called 'free' markets the better.

The word 'free' is a misnomer because someone always has to pay, and it is usually the poor.

What a shabby world we have created for our grandchildren...

BlessedArt Fri 01-May-26 11:20:11

butterandjam

his billionaire pals who make a fortune trading Oil stocks as the market rises and falls.

Trump is all about making money for himself at any cost to his own country.

At any cost to his country, at any cost to humanity. Even before he started murdering Iranian school girls, his administration was clustering stock sales and buys in the US around major economic decisions. They are very open about it. War is a major money maker for the lowest rungs of humanity and Trump is among the lowest of them.

David49 Sat 02-May-26 07:57:07

BlessedArt

SueDonim

I’ve read several times that there’s a lot of insider trading going on, people making money out of misery.

100%.

There is insider trading but currently they don't need it because the oil market is volatile, guessing what Trump will do next is not difficult, judging when other traders will change sentiment is harder.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 02-May-26 08:05:47

MaizieD

^Free market in modern economic terms simply describes a capitalist economy with minimum government interference.^

How dies that differ from laissez faire?

It differs in degree.

Laissez faire exponents argue that markets can only work effectively if they are totally free from government interference.

Well, this of course has never existed, except perhaps in the very early days during the industrial revolution and capital.

The free market describes, trade with the minimum of government interference. There is an acceptance that stuff such as controlling the quality etc - like no chalk in flour, not too old. Safety etc, But an absolute minimum.

Personally I’m with those who see government as one arm of the economy. Although I accept that this is becoming more difficult with the stuff like massive power from billionaires etc.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 02-May-26 08:11:07

Just as aside.

What we are talking about is a particular economic system - capitalism. .

This has only existed for maybe a couple of centuries, perhaps slightly more. Before that there was feudalism, slave-based economies or mercantilism to describe a few.

David49 Sat 02-May-26 16:23:57

Whitewavemark2

Just as aside.

What we are talking about is a particular economic system - capitalism. .

This has only existed for maybe a couple of centuries, perhaps slightly more. Before that there was feudalism, slave-based economies or mercantilism to describe a few.

There is an alternative, state controlled capitalism where the government controls everything, anyone is allowed to make money as long as the obey government policy. Businesses can ignore any copyright and the government subsidizes the export trade.

But there is no freedom of speech and large security forces make sure the population obeys.

MaizieD Sat 02-May-26 21:38:31

Whitewavemark2

Just as aside.

What we are talking about is a particular economic system - capitalism. .

This has only existed for maybe a couple of centuries, perhaps slightly more. Before that there was feudalism, slave-based economies or mercantilism to describe a few.

I don't think we are talking about capitalism specifically.

The original reference was to free markets and it was pointed out that they have existed for hundreds of years. whatever form of economy existed the markets themselves were free and mostly unregulated.

One could object that entry to the markets was sometimes controlled, such as in the mediaeval guild system, but the markets themselves were not. And, a feature of free markets is that they have enabled great wealth and power for a few and poverty for a great many.

There seems to be a feeling that market dominance and the acquisition of wealth is an historic norm that we have to live with. Almost that it is foolish to make any attempt to promote a more equable system. I question this...

Whitewavemark2 Sun 03-May-26 02:14:20

Hmm.

Well I don’t want to get bogged down in this, but what I will say is that a market is not just about the exchange of goods, but the way they are produced, the labour by which they are produced and who owns the means of production and the power to oversee this.

So it is never so simple as buying and selling.

The individuals experience of the market place will be very different within each of the types of economic system. But there has never been a free market, there has always (and for very good reasons) been rules/regs governing them.

But I think I have deviated too far from the OP so will stop now .

MaizieD Sun 03-May-26 08:09:57

But I think I have deviated too far from the OP so will stop now

The OP was a question about a market. A market which will not only make some individuals even more wealthy but will have devastating consequences for much of the global population.

I do find it odd that shoulder shrugging and indifference is a common reaction to the inequality and greed which characterises many global societies.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 03-May-26 10:23:16

Indeed. I think it is because it feels as if it was ever thus, and people feel so powerless.

In fact it is as many predicted that wealth is becoming more and more concentrated, - a characteristic, that is inevitable in a liberal market economy.

David49 Sun 03-May-26 10:40:42

Whitewavemark2

Indeed. I think it is because it feels as if it was ever thus, and people feel so powerless.

In fact it is as many predicted that wealth is becoming more and more concentrated, - a characteristic, that is inevitable in a liberal market economy.

Are we returning to a different type of feudalism?, where the few that control the money are dictating our future, they don't own land or property but do control the finance that enables the economy. The more we borrow the more control they have

Whitewavemark2 Sun 03-May-26 12:02:45

What I do think is that the greater the concentration of wealth in the hands of individuals, the more poverty and misery there is likely to be, unless the world somehow takes steps to mitigate against it, but I’m sure that this will never happen.

Individual countries apart from the huge superpowers (and even then it is questionable) simply do not have sufficient economic or state clout, which is why it is sensible for countries to work together to try to prevent this vast accumulation.

MaizieD Sun 03-May-26 12:13:31

Problem is, though, that whenever anyone proposes to do something about the accumulation or accumulating of excessive wealth, with its impoverishing effect on everyone else, there is a rush to defend the wealthy on the grounds that we need the crumbs they leave us...

Whitewavemark2 Sun 03-May-26 12:15:04

MaizieD

Problem is, though, that whenever anyone proposes to do something about the accumulation or accumulating of excessive wealth, with its impoverishing effect on everyone else, there is a rush to defend the wealthy on the grounds that we need the crumbs they leave us...

Yes, this accumulation is as far as I can see inevitable. What the final outcome will be is anyone’s guess.

David49 Sun 03-May-26 12:21:31

The wealthy will control the media in democratic states, regardless which government is in power, the use of AI will increase the influence.
The only way to counter that is to generate enough resources at home and not to borrow, borrowing is a quick easy way to get more votes for a government but the UK has done too much for too long.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 03-May-26 12:23:40

Borrowing is peanuts in the scheme of things.

WithNobsOnIt Sun 03-May-26 15:35:29

Trump is a player and knows all the other Yankee players..Examples rich bankers and all the other Worlds ruling elites

They can never have enough power and money and this Hormuz skirmish is their latest move.



I

Barbadosbelle Sun 03-May-26 15:44:14

keepingquiet

O h , p l e a s e !
.

JennyCee Sun 03-May-26 15:49:27

Nanna. Trump didn’t get involved in this war, as much as started the damn thing. He’s a billionaire, as are some of his children and they will not be affected at all

Purplepixie Sun 03-May-26 15:58:37

Greedy oil giants are creaming off the profits while us daft buggars are letting them.