Seven Stage Collapse Pattern: America is at Stage 5

We took decades paying back our war debt to the USA.

Well, reports about which ships are getting through the Straits of Hormuz, and why they are being allowed, may indicate that we are at the part where the dominant currency begins to fail.

If the reports are correct, the ships being given passage are using the Chinese yuan, not the dollar.

Don't yet know enough detail about who they are paying, but is the change in currency significant?

Maremia

Don't yet know enough detail about who they are paying, but is the change in currency significant?

The change in currency is significant because for decades oil has been priced and paid for in US dollars. this has helped it keep its position as a reserve currency and keep its value high.

There have been attempts at using other currencies for oil payments but, it is theorised that , the US has used war with the errant countries to stop this happening.

www.independent.org/article/2026/02/27/petrodollar-war-theory/

Disagree with Parallel Truth the US is not an Empire and ever had been so it can't loose it, it has relied on internal economics to generate wealth, not exploiting wealth from outside the home country, like Britain, Spain and even China today. The so called Russian Empire was a military power with no enterprise, shut out from western technology couldn't develop their own.

It biggest disadvantage for the US is that it is a democracy, the risk is the population demanding more from the state than is being produced. The UK and most western nations are the same, since WW2 we have become decadent, thats happening now, you can be sure if the US goes down we will follow.

Previous US governments Republican and Democrat have been very generous allowing foreigners to share their market, to the disadvantage of home industry. Car and consumer goods manufacturers have been decimated resulting in too much money flowing out of the country. Trump us trying to change that by restricting migration and changing tariffs, the population used to the decadent lifestyle is resisting that.

^ The UK and most western nations are the same, since WW2 we have become decadent, thats happening now,^

Can you explain what you mean by 'decadent' David?

Are you a reincarnation of a Victorian mill owner who thinks that the mill workers should work 16 hours a day for a bare pittance?

MaizieD

^ The UK and most western nations are the same, since WW2 we have become decadent, thats happening now,^

Can you explain what you mean by 'decadent' David?

Are you a reincarnation of a Victorian mill owner who thinks that the mill workers should work 16 hours a day for a bare pittance?

Too many are leading an extravagant non productive lifestyle, too many resources are being used on ligestyle improvements.

Not like Dark Satanic Mills, new cars, large houses, overseas holidays, easy credit, are all ways that money is not being used productively. They all reduce the money available to grow the economy, we are loosing out year by year

There are huge numbers of young people now setting up as entrepreneurs, especially in the sectors using the Internet to sell and buy products and services.

The financial world has changed enormously since the economic crash of 2008 and the invention of the futures market and hedge funds means that enormous wealth is generated out of sight of everyday people and money flows around the world being secreted by the wealthy who know how to hide it away from government taxation.

At the same time, houses have stopped being homes, they have become investments instead increasing homelessness and rewarding some who happened to be in the right place at the right time. Much of that money is slipping down into the hands of a second generation who find themselves rich having done little to earn it. Thus inequality is fast increasing.
All of the above increase instability and inequality and separation between rich and poor. I would say our rapacious civilisation is certainly heading for the end, there are patterns for all to see. Unfortunately there are not enough of those with the power and wealth who are willing to do anything to act in the interests of all.
And don't forget the major and ongoing effect of AI.

"Unfortunately there are not enough of those with the power and wealth who are willing to do anything to act in the interests of all."

It's up to the government to do more to get the balance tight there are too many tax breaks for those with plenty of money. It's not the billionaires thats just a distraction it's the top 25% who take every advantage whether they have earned it or not

That's an interesting take, David, about lifestyles not being 'productive'.
Lifestyle choices at the moment support certain industries, and these would lose out if we all reverted to being Puritan.

David49 I think there is now a world elite who are out of the regions of control exercised by any and all governments.

Whatever theory you want to follow, mine included, I wonder does it help to follow a YouTube 'digital creator' called The Parallel Truth but whose existence is otherwise a mystery?

I've just done a quick online search, it looks like the material comes from someone in Pakistan, equally maybe in Dubai....this page is about all you can get past www.facebook.com/SachYeHai2022/

This could be a graduate, a journalist but probably not anyone with professional qualifications or knowledge. It's junk, history is full of theories, my husband is a historian, he looked at the video and shrugged.

Perhaps the Parallel Truth could make a video about climate change because we really need something that people will take notice of. At the moment, climate scientists are saying that the climate is warming to the point where all existing, known patterns and rhythms of the Earth are out of control and chances are, civilisation as we know it may be gone by the end of the century. That's scientists, not some high school graduate in Pakistan.

Maremia

One of the patterns mentioned was over extending a country in trying to give military support.
This latest escapade of Trump's is costing the USA a fortune.
An unnecessary fortune.
Which nation, or nations, is holding the USA national debt?

China.
The dept is eye watering.

www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040115/reasons-why-china-buys-us-treasury-bonds.asp

Maremia

That's an interesting take, David, about lifestyles not being 'productive'.
Lifestyle choices at the moment support certain industries, and these would lose out if we all reverted to being Puritan.

It's not about"certain industries" or puritans, for decades the UK has been importing more than we export, meaning we borrow money to make up the shortfall to maintain spending.

There is nothing wrong with borrowing to produce a Profit/Surplus and pay the loan back as we do with a mortgage, we don't, we borrow more to pay off the maturing one. The cumulative borrowing of the UK is £40,000 each, men women and children, thats not including personal and commercial borrowing.

Unfortunately there are not enough of those with the power and wealth who are willing to do anything to act in the interests of all.

The problem is that for hundreds, if not thousands, of years those with power and wealth have done nothing but act in their own interests. And for most of them their own interests consisted solely of gaining and holding on to their power and wealth.

I think the movement towards social welfare, which started in the 19th C for the UK, and the introduction of universal adult suffrage has produced social conditions which are little more than a passing blip on the surface of history, which the wealthy and powerful are doing their best to eradicate.

In the post WW2 period there was a greater move towards a more equable distribution of wealth and care for the whole population than there has ever been before, but since the reintroduction of the free market economy, cutting the state involvement and privatising what had been regarded as public goods, we're returning to the historical status quo.

What David strongly believes, it seems to me, is that a country is somehow a 'business' and has to make a profit in order to survive. And that 'business' requires all its citizens who don't actually have wealth to work their socks off and forgo any of life's little luxuries and any help if they're in impoverished circumstances.

MaizieD

What David strongly believes, it seems to me, is that a country is somehow a 'business' and has to make a profit in order to survive. And that 'business' requires all its citizens who don't actually have wealth to work their socks off and forgo any of life's little luxuries and any help if they're in impoverished circumstances.

It's not life's little luxuries that are the problem it's the big ones. Most don't save for a new car, house, holiday or furniture, we want it today so we borrow and pay interest. So the purchase cost much more even double in some cases.

It's not just the rich and powerfully that act in their own interests, we all protect our wealth fiercely. The WFA is testament to that, nobody wanted to give it up whether they needed it or not. Everyone wants their estate to goto family with no taxation, so couples can give £1m, much of it unearned wealth.

The problem is too many imports, too many tax breaks, too much borrowing, it's not just the ultra rich which are easy to blame, it what we all do if we can.

The Ultra Rich say over £10m wealth are a very small proportion of voters, they are insignificant in elections and are mobile, trying to tax them is very difficult and produces very little. To get significant revenue a much larger part of the population has to be targeted, say top 25%, they should pay more tax on their wealth. The problem then is at elections they are significant, taking away a previous concession looses a lot of votes.

From the comments I see on GN nobody wants to give up the wealth or concessions we have, we all want someone else to pay.

Are those comments in the room with you just now David?

I thought HP was a thing of the past, except for houses where it would take a fair while to save a million. Not many I know of buy cars or indeed anything else on credit, they get ones they can afford to pay cash for, secondhand or new. Maybe we are different over here ?

nanna8

I thought HP was a thing of the past, except for houses where it would take a fair while to save a million. Not many I know of buy cars or indeed anything else on credit, they get ones they can afford to pay cash for, secondhand or new. Maybe we are different over here ?

The average household debt on credit cards is £2600
80% of new cars are bought using finance of some kind, so are most S/H too.
Even government payments like car tax and other tax payments offer "easy payment" terms, with interest of course.

Maremia

Are those comments in the room with you just now David?

You'll have to explain that

I think most debt is just paying ordinary bills like mortgages, rent, gas and electric. Mainly because they all cost far too much because the governments are hopeless and like taking our money in taxes and costs like licenses and permits and parking fees.

Maremia

Are those comments in the room with you just now David?

Ironically, because I rarely completely agree with David he is right to a certain extent.

People got very indignant about Inheritance tax because the house they bought very cheaply years ago had become extremely valuable now and they wanted their heirs to be able to hang onto all the unearned gains instead of 60% of them. ..

And defending low taxation for higher earners and business owners because 'they'd all leave the country and we'd be lost without them...

nanna8

I think most debt is just paying ordinary bills like mortgages, rent, gas and electric. Mainly because they all cost far too much because the governments are hopeless and like taking our money in taxes and costs like licenses and permits and parking fees.

I would disagree with you on that. Yes, some of the debt may be due to increases basic living expenses but a great deal of it is, as David says, just access to easy credit.

I was dubious when credit cards were introduced in the early 1970s. Not everyone is careful with their finances and credit cards had the potential for people to over extend themselves and end up with more debt than they could manage.

Not only that, but from the 1970s onward commercial banks entered the domestic mortgage market without the restraints that Building societies had, in that a BS could only lend out deposits whereas banks create new money with every loan. this helped to inflate house prices so that more of one's income was needed to repay the higher mortgages. Of course, now that mortgage rates vary according to the BoE interest rates and mortgage interest rates aren't completely fixed term (as they were in the past) people become more indebted as interest rates rise.

A figure of average debt per household tells me that some households a very deeply in debt as a significant number of people, such as we 'boomers' who have paid off our mortgages and genuinely high earners who can afford to absorb rising interest rates comprise a significant proportion of the population.

Where I can't agree with David is that we have a nation of idle shiftless people who expect everything to be handed to them on a plate When we live in a world dominated by consumerism we cannot altogether blame people for falling for the lures of advertising and 'must haves'.

"I think there is now a world elite who are out of the regions of control exercised by any and all governments." (Granatlast007)

I think there may have been a misunderstanding about my intent. I’m not promoting or “following” that YouTube creator or their theory. In fact, the reason I brought it up was because I don’t subscribe to it and was curious to hear how others, especially those who disagree, would respond.

This isn’t a theory unique to that channel either; it’s one of several ideas that have been circulating in different forms. I shared it simply as a discussion point, not as something I personally endorse.

I believe there’s value in exploring a range of perspectives, including ones we may not agree with. Even strongly held or opposing views can help sharpen our understanding when they’re discussed openly and critically.