Someone needs to go back to Junior School himself.

I am not and never have been a teacher.

I have been heavily involved with a local primary school for the last 29 years.

I agree with MartavTaurus that mapping out a child’s future at reception through to year 2, is quiet frankly ridiculous.

Who knows what is going to happen in any child’s life? Who can say if they are going to have a sudden breakthrough moment in maths, reading, art or any subject. Who can predict if a child is going to become disenchanted and troublesome at the inset of puberty.

I am beginning to groan each time a report/article on education comes out…

Sorry, but the sarcastic opening post was lifted dircectly from the very link you offer.

The cynical title is because I am against anyone predicting - and writing off - a child's ability to get a job at primary school age. Talk about damning their future.

And it's not just to do with identifying children with NEET risk factors. The way things are going with AI, it will be the academic scholars at Oxbridge who will be at risk of unemployment, 10 years after leaving Junior School, so maybe they should be identified as future unemployed too?

Why the sarcastic title and opening post when there is data to back up what Milburn is saying?

Risk of not being in employment, education or training (NEET) in late adolescence is signalled by school readiness measures at 4–5 years

link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-024-18851-w

You can download the full report from that link.

Extract:

Results

School readiness was significantly associated with NEET status. A larger proportion of young people who were not school ready were later NEET (11%) compared to those who were school ready (4%). Most of this effect was attributable to shared relationships with academic attainment, but there was also a direct effect. Measures of deprivation and Special Educational Needs were also strong predictors of NEET status.

Conclusions

NEET risk factors occur early in life. School readiness measures could be used as early indicators of risk, with interventions targeted to prevent the long-term physical and mental health problems associated with NEET, especially in disadvantaged areas. Primary schools are therefore well placed to be public health partners in early intervention strategies.

www.theguardian.com/society/2026/aug/07/english-primary-schools-to-be-told-to-identify-children-at-risk-of-future-unemployment