Dr John Campbell

I agree it is reassuring JenniferEccles. I think it's perhaps because he talks as if we are students which, in this instance we are. Students are bright, capable and prepared to understand but don't have a particular knowledge set. That's us! Thank heavens for experts - especially those that teach

Because transmission is exponential, which we are seeing, exposure will happen quickly even with social isolating. The global stage of the epidemic does not affect the UK much because anyone returning for overseas will have arrived in a month, then borders will be closed much tighter, except for freight.

The problem we have at this stage is that most tests are being done on patients that need to be in hospital. Surely if you need to be admitted or need a ventilator you need treatment wether you have C19 or not. So the sample takes no account of mild cases that don’t get tested.

I had a bad cough and serious chest pains, after 2 weeks I phoned the doctor and was told take paracetamol and if I had breathing difficulties call back, obviously I recovered, albeit slowly.

I’m optimistic that within a month it will be a much better out look and many can start work again.

We won’t get to anywhere near the required 60% though quickly - nor do we want to, for all the reasons which are well known. The exponential figures Dr Campbell quoted in one of those YouTube clips showed just how far off we are globally from that magic 60% and with all the collateral damage getting there will entail. If we take the UK in isolation we’re still nowhere near 60% and we’re doing well to keep it well below it.

Yes you are right GGM2

I did have the feeling of being in a college lecture and I mean that in a complimentary way!

I am pleased you haven’t had any negative comments about starting this thread!

Thanks JenniferEccles - me too!

This is today's update

Thank you for sharing that. Quite sobering viewing.

I read that there could be a correlation between people who had the BCG jab and a better prognosis if they get Covid-19. It seems that a number of countries are looking at this.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/fewer-coronavirus-deaths-seen-in-countries-that-mandate-tb-vaccine

That’s really interesting Blinko. I didn’t get the BCG jag at school because the little skin prick test came up in a big lump which showed I had natural immunity to TB - they thought it was because my mum had TB in the fifties. Fingers crossed this stands me in good stead!

It is quite sobering as you say SirC but it is all going in much the same direction in all the countries. What we really need is to see those that started first start to plateau which would mean if we keep doing what we are doing we should follow and plateau ourselves.

Yes - there was no way we wouldn’t. I’d have preferred to see us more closely aligned with Germany in terms of testing though - we really need to move on that one. Peak death rate in about 9 days which bears out what we’re all preparing for in our Board.

They said at todays briefing that the tests aren't accurate, but there's surely no getting away from the fact that Germany are testing testing testing and their death rate is far lower than other countries [with the exception of S Korea].

Dr John Campbell said that he thought 9 days before the peak was optimistic. Today's cumulative death statistic shows that the figure is more than doubling every three days. Campbell didn't mention a figure, but if it does only(!) double every three days, it will be 28,840 in nine days. If it carries on for 21 days, which is what he was briefly hinting, the cumulative death figure will be 461,440, which is truly frightening. If the death rate for those infected is 1%, which he also said, that means 46,144,000 will have been infected. At that point "herd immunity" will have been achieved, so hopefully deaths will decrease - at a horrendous price. Those figures are more or less what the Imperial College report came up with when the government changed its strategy to be more pro-active.

The only thing we, as individuals, can do is to try to stay safe.

SirChenjin If the rate of increase continues its current trajectory, it will be 20 days before 60% have been infected. It probably won't, because many people have been totally self-isolating for weeks, but I'm not sure what happens once they start going out and about again.

I didn't realise that he is not a medical doctor.

Growstuff I've been having the flu jab for years and I've also had the one-off pneumonia jab. I tried to find out if either protects me, but sadly it appears not.
There are two pneumonia jabs and they are different. The NHS provides one free to oldies but Boots also does one for £70 and you need to have both. I've had the Boots one but then you can't have the NHS one for 8 weeks. Neither protects you from corona, but I still want them as I've had pneumonia more than once.

No you’re right grow - it (hopefully) won’t because we’re working to prevent it, as health services, economies etc simply couldn’t cope. As you say though, who knows what happens in the next few months as things start to return to some semblance of normality.

I didn't have a pneumonia jab because I was an oldie. I'm diabetic, which affects immune response. That's why diabetics are considered to be high risk in the current pandemic. I'm no more or less likely to be infected than anybody else, but I'm significantly more likely to be affected badly by it.

I've never had pneumonia or proper flu, so I guess it's all especially frightening.

I wonder if our isolation might make us more prone to catching other things when life gets back to some sort of normality.. I only say this because I really wanted a shingles jab but wasn't the right age and my doctor said the important thing was to[post retirement] keep going out and about and mixing with people.

Luckygirl, no he isn't a medical doctor but a PhD.
His background is medical, in nursing but he has excellent qualifications and experience

Luckygirl Dr John Campbell has a PhD and is a specialist in immunology and vaccinations. According to his CV, he's a former front line A&E nurse, including in Africa. He probably knows more about the current pandemic than many medical doctors.

Snap Callistemon.

I can't see how that would work Labaik, unless the disease itself mutates and there's a milder form, which makes people immune to the worst form. What was your doctor's reasoning in encouraging you to get out and mix with people? (But I'm no medic, so maybe I've missed something.)

That was only regarding shingles. All I can assume is that if you shut yourself away completely your body isn't exposed to any viruses at all and your immune system gets a bit slack. Of course, this was a few years ago and she wasn't referring to covid etc. And I'd still have a shingles jab if I could get one!

I suppose it's because Dr Campbell isn't a medical doctor that he can be more outspoken.

He is as well qualified in his field as an MD but has a PhD and probably knows more about this subject than most MDs as I believe this is his field of specialty.