Floods!

That's an interesting point re setaside land starbird. The S.O. and I were just saying we couldn't understand why more trees weren't being planted.

The other predication that has been around a long time is the likelihood of the gulf stream failing in the N Atlantic which means we will move towards a climate like Newfoundland - so we should make the most of the mild weather
The Gulf Stream has been slowing up quite rapidly.

I did read somewhere that a rapid period of global warming could precede another ice age.

Sorry if this has already been said - the floods seem to be caused by a combination of things - a strong El Nino effect that has caused over 10,000 people to evacuate homes flooded to the roof in Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil; in the UK a farming policy of denuding the landscape to claim EU subsidy for set aside, which is only paid out for land with no trees - land on a hillside planted with trees absorbs 26 times that of bare land; building on flood plains - the tv showed several newish housing estates flooded, and planning permission is still being handed out for housing on flood plains; straightening and dredging that caused water to run away too fast until it hits a town with nowhere to go but up and over the sides .... . Whoever is in power the problems are caused by the desire for short term gain and to placate the voters, rather than common sense and long term stability.

The other predication that has been around a long time is the likelihood of the gulf stream failing in the N Atlantic which means we will move towards a climate like Newfoundland - so we should make the most of the mild weather
On the other side of the Atlantic in the US they are also having horrendous flooding and abnormal temperatures. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35196399

When I was studying for my first degree in Environmental Science in the 60s WARM WET WINTERS were predicted even then. Jess is correct this is not new, scientists have known this was coming for a 'long time'.

No it has not caught us unawares. Meteorologists have been warning politicians for a long time that more extreme weather would be coming due to increased warmth of our planet. And whether or not you think the burning of fossil fuels is to blame it's the warmest year on record for the second year running. The heating up of the Pacific has led to an el-Nino year. And we have never had an el-Nino combined with the low levels of Arctic sea ice that we now have.

www.iflscience.com/environment/watch-amazing-visualization-arctic-ice-over-last-25-years

It will be interesting to ask the question in 6 months time to see what if anything is being planned including extra funding

We are all surprised by the rain levels, but the EA has been urging more investment for years. They have modelled the changing weather patterns and this together with sea level rises causes real concern for the those responsible for defending our communities.
Lack of funding and staffing levels has seriously hindered the EA in its responsibility

Good post * Luckygirl* I totally agree.
Virtually the whole of the Thames Valley is built on a flood plain btw, so what's with all the Home Counties bashing along with Tory bashing?
Oxford got a new station because it badly needed another one,this area is where the jobs are, and where people live who commute into London.
Oxfordshire has had the same council cuts as anywhere else.It is not protected because Cameron has a 'seat' here.Nor are all the residents filthy rich, as I, AlieOxon, Shysal, Bohemian, FlicketyB and countless other Gnetters can confirm.

I doubt whether any government of whatever political hue would have got this right. The change in the rainfall pattern has caught us all unawares. Sudden very heavy rainfall has not been the pattern and it is causing huge problems because of it falling very rapidly in large quantities on already saturated ground.

The government is going to have to join with the opposition parties to thrash out a long term strategy - and a lot of investment is going to be needed.

I really feel for those poor souls caught up in this. Their houses have become valueless so they cannot move away if they wished; and insurance will always be a problem.

Oh, just for once the chance to discuss a serious issue likes these floods, without it turning into a government-bashing exercise.

I really feel for these people as I too have been forced out of my home, albeit by a fire, and am living in rented accommodation with pets, and battling with insurance companies. It's a nightmare believe me.

Yes it's all too easy to blame the current government but remember that the b****y Tories have only been 'in power' since 2010. There is just as much s**t mud that needs to be flung at Labour for not maintaining and updating flood planning.

Could we please get off our political high horses because this goes absolutely nowhere.

I seem to recall the council leader being told off by Cameron, who wanted his advisers to tell the leader how to do things properly without cutting services. Cameron was told off for this preferential treatment.
Haven't heard anything since that stand-off. Anyone living in Oxfordshire know anything?

Agree Jen, they have to take action now

Is Oxfordshire being affected by cuts?

Anniebach, I agree with the idea of no changes when a change of government, but we can't start from where we are now.
Like Richard Murphy says, we can afford to pay for flood defences. It just needs government will.

"The government was warned by its own advisory body that a funding gap could leave swaths of the north vulnerable to flooding just weeks before the deluge this Christmas, official documents show.

Prof Colin Mellors, head of the Yorkshire regional flood and coastal committee (RFCC), said funding cuts could mean discontinuing some flood defences, according to minutes on the government’s website.

The disclosure came as opposition MPs representing northern constituencies affected by the floods rounded on David Cameron for neglecting defences outside the south of England, creating a north-south divide in preparedness."

From an article in the Guardian this morning.

The minutes on the government website referred to are in a 140 page document, just in case anyone wants to read it.

Chickens beginning to coming home to roost?

York Magistrates courts have been flooded.
The last time that happened was in 2000 and they were closed for six months. Cases were then held in Selby. However, Selby courts have been closed because of cuts.

Oxford also got a new railway into London, after the northern ones were shelved. No North/South divide?

"This country can afford flood defences, and as many of them as we want within our physical capacity to build them. We can pay for them in three ways.

First, we could issue new gilts. That is, of course, government debt. But given that markets are buying any amount the government creates without flinching or demanding higher interest rates this is entirely possible.

Second, we could create a National Investment Bank and have it issue bonds to cover the cost with a yield either covered by the government, or insurers, or, if the money was spent wisely on developing new technology by marketising it and creating a new world leading industry in this area.

Third, we could of course do People’s Quantitative Easing using either of these bond issues, although I do not think that would be necessary at present.

So, we can pay for this without raising taxes any time soon and maybe ever and, if done wisely, this problem could be turned into an opportunity.

In fact, if we thought long term enough we would realise that we really do have to invest big time in this issue. For example, if the whole of the area from the Wash to Bedford is not to be flooded regularly in the future it really is time we dammed the Wash. Then we would also have a tidal energy source and would preserve and create new wildlife habitats when soon many will be lost.

But that may be going too far when at present the government can’t seem to think beyond finding the cash for sandbags."

Richard Murphy.

There must be some sort of consensus throughout the England and Wales that this needs to be taken out of party political hands. The Pitt report in 2008 strongly indicated the way forward and for a time extra resources were given to those areas at real risk. We need to revisit this and continue where we left off and of course updating it as necessary - it is a moving picture and we are definitely on the back foot at the moment.

Any Grans living near Oxford will be aware if the "new" bit of the Thames being built to mitigate flooding - perhaps something like this could be done in Leeds?

The shadow chancellor was very sensible on this subject this morning. A cross party agreement with no changes when changes of government

rosequartz you are right. Woke up and thought .... wrong word!
I agree politics should be taken out of this issue. Unfortunately we have a government that does not want to do anything to control carbon emissions or regulate the behaviour of landowners.
Here's Monbiot explaining how removing regulations from landowners (traditional Tory supporters of course) is counterproductive.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/17/farmers-uk-flood-maize-soil-protection

Another couple of relevant paragraphs from the same article. This is what the Environment Agency says.

"Flood defences on average prevent £8 in future flood damages per £1 spent," it said. "This is because funding is limited and typically only the best-value-for-money projects are taken forward. The Environment Agency published last February a list of 387 projects that will not proceed at least for the next four years due to a lack of funding, or where more money needs to be found to fund their development.

"Ideally, every flood defence project that achieves benefits greater than its costs would be funded (by someone, not necessarily government)," it said.

It is definitely a right wing government doing this. No apologies for saying this.

Oh, just realised the link dj gave was not related to her post of 22.14. Never mind, I'm sure the quote is absolutely factually correct...

Yes, whitewave, having lived in York in the 2000 floods, and up until 2010, I know how scary it can be. This is much more widespread.

After we sold the guest house, we were thinking of buying a flat in one of the blocks affected just off the Huntington Road/ Layerthorpe interchange. We realised it was a bit daft because the flood maps showed a 1 in 20 risk of flooding in the garages.
The Archbishop said the most sensible thing in those interviews. Why is the electricity on the Foss Barrier at a level where it can be damaged by flooding?