Liam Halligan in the Telegraph this morning (I like him):
“ Liam Halligan
23 February 2025 8:00am GMT
Friedrich Merz – the 69-year-old Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader – looks set to become German chancellor after federal elections on Sunday.
Having served a lacklustre four-year tenure, Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party will certainly lose the top job. While the make-up of the ruling coalition remains in play, Merz will run a very different government to both Scholz and his CDU predecessor, Angela Merkel, shifting his party decidedly towards the Right.
That’s not surprising, with Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) likely to be Germany’s official opposition, commanding around 140 to 150 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag, on around 20pc of the vote.
AfD is likely to have doubled its support since 2021, on a platform of tough anti-crime policies including the forced “re-migration” of illegal arrivals. With some members closely-linked to neo-Nazi movements, AfD will dominate the headlines after these pivotal German elections.
Enjoying strong support among younger voters who are worried about job security and rapid cultural change, AfD could form Germany’s government after the next scheduled federal elections in 2029.
Whether that happens depends in large part on Germany’s ability to stage a dramatic economic recovery.
Back in February 2022, days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Olaf Scholz said Germany faced a “zeitenwende” – or turning point. The country needed to find a new growth engine.
But instead of the European Union’s powerhouse achieving rapid post-lockdown growth or playing a truly decisive role in the continent’s most serious military conflict in seventy years, the country has since stagnated.
For the last quarter century, Germany has been fuelled by cheap energy from Russia and lucrative exports to China. That model is now broken, just as a resurgent Donald Trump is upending Nato and threatening tariffs on the EU, leaving the world’s fourth-largest economy mired in stagnation and angst about the future.”