Inaccurate weather forecasting

I think we expect too much.
Nature-especially the weather, in this country more than most it seems, can be capricious and how often do we complain about 4 seasons in one day (or in one morning in Scotland) ?
Brought up in the Borders the received wisdom was “If you can see the Eildon (hills) it’s going to rain. If you can’t, it’s raining”
Or you could use this infallible method on the left!
Was it really SO wrong yesterday? Wind speeds can change and storm Bert’s progress across the country may have been faster or slower than expected.
All I know is that taking the granddog and grandsons to the park in Walthamstow yesterday morning round the corner from their houses and opposite their school, there was a huge tree across the road which had been uprooted, bringing down a length of iron railings and landing on a white Skoda parked opposite, completely blocking the road. Fortunately nobody was hurt but it might have been another matter on a school day. The warnings about high winds and possible damage were spot on.

Brought up in the Borders the received wisdom was “If you can see the Eildon (hills) it’s going to rain. If you can’t, it’s raining”
We said the same about the Wrekin in Shropshire.

Schools and colleges closed here, roads turned into rivers and houses flooded.
It has been a dreadful weekend, Storm Bert wreaked havoc.

People have to make the decision in time to ensure everyone knows. Locally there were a fair few events planned for Sunday, most of the events were cancelled Saturday, another one decided to wait and see, and decided Sunday morning to cancel which was the right thing, the storm had come later than originally expected, there had been trees blown over and fences too,and gazebos would not have withstood it. They were right to cancel, I decided not to go to church, too many old trees around and so often they get blown down or big boughs fall on cars. You can't see something like that coming

The Danish meterological office apparently neither possesses a map of the country, a compass nor a clock.

I rose early on Wednesday last to go shopping as snow was forecast for the afternoon, and lo and behold! It started snowing at 8 a.m. on the dot.

On Friday snow was forecast "later in the forenoon", well it was snowing merrily, as I left at twenty to nine in the morning, transporting both cats in their cat basket, with extra blankets in it, and a rug over the top and sides, plus the tarp over all on my cargo bike to the vet!

Fortunately, his consulting-room is under a km from my house, but neither the cats nor I enjoyed my having to make three attempts to drag or push the bike over accummulated forzen slush at the kerb edges of a heavily trafficated main road.

Why they no longer can forecast the weather accurately, is anyone's guess. It has to my mind nothing to do with changeable weather, the trouble started in the late 1960s when they changed the methods of forecasting weather.

It would drive you nuts, wouldn't it?

Here in the East Midlands, the forecast was pretty accurate. Yesterday was very wet and very windy all day. Our Christmas market was cancelled. It was a shame, but definitely the right decision. It was definitely a day for battening down the hatches and curling up with a good book. Today has been sunny.

The weather forecast is generally correct, but mother nature is a law unto herself.

Today has been windy, as forecast, though not the wind speeds forecast.

Interestingly, my French barometer is showing very low pressure and 'tempete'. It likes to err on the pessimistic side, too...

We are involved in a particular outdoor charitable activity several times a year, so weather-watching is one of my "hobbies" as neither of us does well in the cold, wet or snow. I find AccuWeather the best, but look at the Met Office and the BBC. I find them all fairly accurate but I think their projections are a tad vague so they are "covered" if they are not quite right.

Tomorrow looks to be a reasonable day, so we will be out on the streets. Hope it works.

Our weather forecasts are dreadful when compared to those in the US. I know they have a much larger landmass over which to monitor weather but when living in the US we would get forecasts saying the snow would start to fall at a certain time and that's when it would happen. It could be relied upon which is the opposite of what we have here in the UK.

Well beg to differ.
I use the BBC website and sometimes when it says eg rain at 9, guess what, it’s raining at 9!

knspol

Our weather forecasts are dreadful when compared to those in the US. I know they have a much larger landmass over which to monitor weather but when living in the US we would get forecasts saying the snow would start to fall at a certain time and that's when it would happen. It could be relied upon which is the opposite of what we have here in the UK.

Not true.

Being a continent, accuracy of weather forecasts in the USA vary by region.

The BBC weather app predictions are not as accurate as those of the Met Office.

The whole problem is that the weather does not listen to the forecast.

We live in a maritime climate weather is always going to be changeable no forecast can predict where the heaviest rain is going to fall, a change in the wind or temperature can make a big difference.

I don’t know why Northampton had a deluge this week we are about 20 miles away and had a wet day maybe 30mm, the meadows are flooded otherwise normal. The last big flood we had was 20+ yrs ago 150mm - 6 inches in one day, even the fire engines were getting swamped

The whole problem is that the weather does not listen to the forecast.
😁
But true!

We need more beavers or at least to form wetlands with felled trees upstream.
We never dredge rivers any more either.

https://signal-corridor.live/uploads/talk/202411/medium-233563-379defe9-d5d8-464d-ac7b-507af24fd562.png%3C/span%3E https://signal-corridor.live/uploads/talk/202411/medium-465087-a296fd6b-0b8b-4c08-9e4c-e5845e32cd94.jpeg%3C/span%3E

David49

The whole problem is that the weather does not listen to the forecast.

We live in a maritime climate weather is always going to be changeable no forecast can predict where the heaviest rain is going to fall, a change in the wind or temperature can make a big difference.

I don’t know why Northampton had a deluge this week we are about 20 miles away and had a wet day maybe 30mm, the meadows are flooded otherwise normal. The last big flood we had was 20+ yrs ago 150mm - 6 inches in one day, even the fire engines were getting swamped

Northampton does not have a maritime climate or have I totally misread your post?
Billing Aquadtome which made the news today because of being flooded out, was similarly evacuated due to flooding just a few weeks ago in September. Much of E. Northants was flooded at that time too, such here at Sulgrave Manor.
It’s nothing new.

Northampton does not have a maritime climate or have I totally misread your post?
Great Britain has a maritime climate and Northampton is in theUK

Apologies!
Every day's a school day!

Not only that but it's a temperate maritime climate but you wouldn't have thought so on Friday ❄☃️

I live in the South East and the forecast is usually depressingly accurate. The timings are usually pretty good too.

Allira

Not only that but it's a temperate maritime climate but you wouldn't have thought so on Friday ❄☃️

It was actually typical of what happens, cold air from the north met by rain from the west which turns to snow, absolutely classic at this time of year. More rain plus melting snow means big floods

Well, it was a joke, supposedly.

I did Geography at school too.

Humans try to predict what the weather will be, but mother nature does her own thing.
I do look at the forecast but what will be - will be, and take it as it comes.

We got the bitter cold earlier in the week but seem to have escaped the worst of the stormy weather. I just feel sorry for those who are bearing the brunt of the rain and floods.
My GC are loving the snow in Yorkshire but I'm happy we only had a few flurries that didn't settle. Be grateful for small mercies!

The Somerset forecast was spot on.

I was in Brighton (which I think is SE Coast) on 24/11. I nearly got blown off my feet.