The US Election.

Trump will be for America and America only. God help the rest of us. Australia has a few American bases which may help in our relationship with them. Nearly all our trade seems to be with China not America now. If I was in Europe, particularly the UK, I would firm up ties and become a strong united front. Big,big mistake to secede with Brexit, especially now. I don’t think Trump will give a damn about historical ties, probably doesn’t even know what they are.

David Starkey pointed out that Russia has now regained all the territory it wants from Ukraine and that Russia is now fighting a very prolonged battle. There’s an assumption that the West is being damaged economically by dragging out this conflict. Certainly the Uk is currently suffering economically due to very high energy prices, and Russia is not folding over the cost of war.
If it takes President Trump to bring about a workable solution, what does it say about the failure of the rest of the world? Putin recognises bravery when he sees it. We don’t.

ronib

David Starkey pointed out that Russia has now regained all the territory it wants from Ukraine and that Russia is now fighting a very prolonged battle. There’s an assumption that the West is being damaged economically by dragging out this conflict. Certainly the Uk is currently suffering economically due to very high energy prices, and Russia is not folding over the cost of war.
If it takes President Trump to bring about a workable solution, what does it say about the failure of the rest of the world? Putin recognises bravery when he sees it. We don’t.

It would have been possible to push the Russians back if NATO had acted quickly because Russia was not prepared for a prolonged campaign. Now Russia is well entrenched, it’s going to be very costly to push them out now, I doubt Ukraine has the manpower to achieve victory on their own. Unless others are willing to put boots on the ground it’s not realistic to think of winning the war.

Putin has taken enough territory to claim victory, however much we dislike that, a ceasefire with conditions, Ukraine joining NATO is probably the best solution now.

It’s well known that Trump wants Europe to spend more on its own defence, in the UK we rely very heavily on US defence technology, in conjunction with EU we need to expand the defence capability

Ukraine joining NATO will encourage Putin to continue the war David49

ronib

Ukraine joining NATO will encourage Putin to continue the war David49

Surely it would discourage him? Putin is surrounded by NATO countries and probably doesn’t want to get into an even bigger spat.

Ladylfl did you listen to Patin’s speech at the outset of war? My understanding is that the encroachment of NATO on the border of Russia and within missile striking distance is complete anathema to Putin. Why else would Putin have started it?

ronib because he still sees Russia as an Empire - and wants to rebuild it as such.

His plan for a new Russian Empire includes Ukraine (and Belarus it seems). He's even compared himself to Peter the Great.

This may interest you
www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/21/russia-annex-belarus-2030-leaked-documents-reveal/

I found this very relevant article

"The US election, Ukraine, and the meaning of peace"
ecfr.eu/article/the-us-election-ukraine-and-the-meaning-of-peace/

Its hard to see the "compromises" in it possible.

It seems clearer than for some time, that there are those who seek to weaken the Western Alliance by dismantling NATO, namely: Viktor Orban, Geert Wilders, Robert Fico, Alice Weidel , Meloni and Salvini, Lepen, Nigel Farage and more, collectively known as “Putin’s Useful Idiots”.

A divided Europe did not happen by chance- it was orchestrated from outside, by the like of Putin.

A new European defence strategy and military capability is required, and it must include GB, or we will stand more isolated and vulneable as ever. Liberal governments in Europe and Britain must unite and drive this initiative forward. It might be too late already.

Yes, we belong, in this matter, with NATO and greater co-operation. the immediate matter is the Ukraine.

There's is another thread going atm about the US and the military as of course the US has thousands of soldiers in US military bases around the world: if these stop being NATO friendly, we need to look to our own resources, however difficult.

Well if Europe doesn't step up to the plate, ie increase their funding to NATO, there may well be problems. Germany for years paid less than most others. You can't really expect America to carry us all. Even a massive country like Canada spends only 2% of its GDP on defense, less than us at 2.3%. Poland the biggest spender at 4.1% and Estonia 3.4%.
So I think many others need to put their hands more deeply into their pockets to spread the cost evenly.

Freya5

Well if Europe doesn't step up to the plate, ie increase their funding to NATO, there may well be problems. Germany for years paid less than most others. You can't really expect America to carry us all. Even a massive country like Canada spends only 2% of its GDP on defense, less than us at 2.3%. Poland the biggest spender at 4.1% and Estonia 3.4%.
So I think many others need to put their hands more deeply into their pockets to spread the cost evenly.

Yes including us.

Freya5

Freya5

Well if Europe doesn't step up to the plate, ie increase their funding to NATO, there may well be problems. Germany for years paid less than most others. You can't really expect America to carry us all. Even a massive country like Canada spends only 2% of its GDP on defense, less than us at 2.3%. Poland the biggest spender at 4.1% and Estonia 3.4%.
So I think many others need to put their hands more deeply into their pockets to spread the cost evenly.

Yes including us.

I’m sure Eastern Europeans spend a larger proportion of GDP on defence but they have a smaller GDP to spend most others spend less than 2%, the UK is increasing to 2.5%.

I think Putin wants to put the war behind him if he can save face, so will do a deal, Ukraine joining NATO is the key for Zelensky, probably fast track to EU as well.

What makes you think that Putin wants to put the war behind him, David?

(genuine question, no economics involved 😆)

Farage admits that the UK is totally alone currently from the point of military security, and that we are now closer to WW3 thanwe have ever been before.

Fleurpepper

Farage admits that the UK is totally alone currently from the point of military security, and that we are now closer to WW3 thanwe have ever been before.

I am curious as to why you suddenly believe what Mr.Farage has to say?

If NF says this then he’s taking out of his hat. We are members of NATO.

Talking not taking

Of course we are Oreo

MaizieD

What makes you think that Putin wants to put the war behind him, David?

(genuine question, no economics involved 😆)

The Russians population want the manpower losses to stop, he will claim it as a victory, yes politics matter to Putin

Amnesty International has highlighted the perils of expressing opposition to the war in Ukraine David49.
Putin is good at closing down dissent. Seems to be a sign of the times….

ronib

Amnesty International has highlighted the perils of expressing opposition to the war in Ukraine David49.
Putin is good at closing down dissent. Seems to be a sign of the times….

I’m an optimist, if Ukraine is not protected by NATO the war will restart in a few years. Russia and China are a fact of life they are not going to change because Amnesty International says so.
Zelensky needs to get something in return for loosing 10%+ of his country, more than just arms.

I didn't think that Putin was in the least bit interested in the wishes of the Russian population, David. He's got the top job sewn up for as long as he wants it and he's made sure he is very, very wealthy. Dissent is stamped on firmly. He'll keep going for as long as he wants to...

MaizieD

I didn't think that Putin was in the least bit interested in the wishes of the Russian population, David. He's got the top job sewn up for as long as he wants it and he's made sure he is very, very wealthy. Dissent is stamped on firmly. He'll keep going for as long as he wants to...

He much more concerned than you realize, travel and investment restrictions on Russians, not to mention internal restrictions, do not make him popular. Relaxing restrictions will be part of the deal, the problem with Ukraine “not” joining NATO is that Ukraine will be armed by NATO but not controlled by them. Neither side will feel secure, better that NATO is in control, the same situation as all the other border countries.

I doubt Putin will agree to a ceasefire unless he can demonstrate to his fellow Russians that he has won and that means gaining territory. He gained territory in 2014, if he gains more this time he'll try again in the future. My concern is that Trump will try to buy peace by giving Putin a big slice of what territory he's currently holding whilst telling Zelensky he'll cut off military aid if he doesn't agree. Effectively rewarding Putin for his aggression. Trump is transactional and he'll see only what deal will suit his presidency. Fwiw Putin controls the media and Russians are told what Putin wants them to believe but IMO with Trump in the White House he'll have an easier path to getting what he wants.