Would you support the doctors' strike.

"It is claimed more people die in hospital at weekends than week days, I do question how many would be emergency admissions and patient critical on admission" Ab

BMJ report says higher risk of death in patients admitted at weekends (In those admitted, not those already there)

Quote from link -
" around 11,000 more people die each year within 30 days of admission to hospital on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, or Monday compared with other days of the week (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). . . . . Patients already in hospital over the weekend do not have an increased risk of death"

"They also looked at patient characteristics, length of hospital stay, and time to death.

An average of 2.7 million patients were admitted to hospital on each weekday, while an average of 1.2 million patients were admitted on a Saturday and 1 million patients admitted on a Sunday.

Saturday and Sunday admissions were more likely to be emergencies, 50% and 65% respectively, than on weekdays (29%) and length of stay was also higher for patients admitted on a Saturday and Sunday.A higher proportion of patients admitted on a Saturday and Sunday had diagnoses that placed them in the highest risk of death category, 24.6% and 29.2% respectively, compared with less than 20% of weekday admissions."

Thank you Elegran , as I thought

www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/images-letterfromsirandrewdilnottocd03121_tcm97-45051.pdf

This is the response from Dilnott about the statistics used by Hunt.
Full Fact complained to the statistics authority because he implied cause and effect.

Anniebach There are some sums to be done on the statistics in the link I gave - some of it is in %s and some in figures so some translating is needed. As was talked about on another thread, it is not just being able to do the straight sums but also getting your head round just what sums to apply. It would be very easy to go in the wrong direction.

I have been trying unsuccessfully to analyse it to work out the relationship, setting severity of diagnosis plus condition at emergency admittance, against reported increased likelihood of dying. There are probably quadratic equations involved. I think it takes a statistician (or a mathematician at the least, which I am not) Any volunteers?

No thanks! Data insufficient to demonstrate anything.
But it is clear that the profile of those admitted at weekends is different - and quite a lot different - to the profile of those admitted during the week. Therefore the only way to demonstrate causality would be to do a careful study across a range of hospitals in which patients being admitted as emergencies are allocated to two comparison groups which are identical other than the day of admission. This would not be easy to do. You'd have to identify as many variables as you could that might potentially affect outcome (age, social class, route of admission, type of emergency etc)
Its a pity that more MPs do not have a scientific background that equips them to assess research evidence. Government front benches in particular tend to be stacked with those who studied politics, law etc.
Generally they do not let evidence, or the lack of it, slow them down in their fevered progress to change things.

Anyone who has attended A & E at the weekend and during the week will have noticed that for one thing there are a lot more accidents involving drink at the weekend. Some of those accidents will have involved more serious injuries than can be sent home after a bit of patching up. Add to that the patients who have been soldiering on at work all week and succumb at the weekend, and subtract the ones who would have been admitted during the week for a scheduled op in due course but have been overtaken by sudden complications. There just aren't enough facts to know exactly what the balance is.

I support the strike 100% . I despise this Government and what their motives are , they would happily run the NHS into the ground so they can privatise and sell it off to their rich mates .

Durhamjen. Should have been intransigent which means stubborn!

Whatever the stats may or may not show, there needs to be the same level of cover in A&E, the wards and in surgery at weekends as there is during the week. Possibly even more if, as Elegran points out, the drunks get behaviour of some at these times puts even more of a strain on the NHS.

How this is to be achieved without everyone shouting for more money isn't clear.

Should read 'drunken behaviour of some'

I think the people admitted to A&E through drink should go to a separate unit , they do have this facility in some hospitals , I saw a documentary not long ago . If they need somewhere safe to sleep it off A&E is not the place.

It must be frightening for staff to have to deal with these, often aggressive , individuals . A drunk tank with nursing staff or trained vols until they are sober enough to go home !

Personally I'd charge them for treatment. And not just a token charge either. If they can afford to get plastered then they can afford to pay.

Not sure how that would apply to the homeless though. Perhaps they'd benefit from a night in the cells, a shower and a good breakfast.

And if people stopped playing sport there would be fewer admissions for injuries at weekend

My son has just become a hospital consultant. He is a father of two, with a hefty mortgage on a very modest house, and drives a ten year old car. So up to last September, he was a 'junior' doctor. He worked regular weekends, without compensatory days off in the week. He worked regular long night shifts, finishing on Monday morning after seven nights on, and then straight back to normal day shifts from Tuesday. Christmas? At work. Easter? You've got it, at work. Parents evenings? 'Sorry, the list ran over, don't know when I'll be home'. Throughout his training, I've been constantly enraged by the shameful treatment of these caring, hardworking and under-appreciated professionals, and would actively discourage anyone thinking of medicine as a career. More power to their elbow.

We needed the knowledge of someone who knows of the work of so called junior doctors hummingbird , good post

That is just plain stupid Annie - sorry but really?

So hummingbird - and I ask this in all sincerity - what would your son prefer? More time off or more money?

If quality time to spend with his family, then we obviously need to train and/or recruit more doctors. TBH I think this is the problem. We simply don't have enough GPs, nurses and other essential staff.

BUT it takes time and money to train and retain quality staff. So one way or another it all comes down to money in the long run, and how the NHS is to be financed in this age of huge demand.

I don't want to see it broken up, but how can continue to support it when there is just so much demand? And it's just so unfair too. A 10-year old boy with cerebral palsy who lives locally had to pay privately £11,000 for an operation to help him walk. He now has to pay privately for physiothery, all money raised by his parents, because the NHS won't fund it. When I think of the £1,000,00 an hour going to treat type 2 diabetes I can't help but think that £11,000 is a drop in the ocean.

I'm neither for not against the junior doctors strike. But we need some overall workable strategy for the NHS as we simply cannot fund it any more without some radical new thinking.

I am curious as to why this battle is happening only in England's NHS, Wales and Scotland have settled agreements in their NHS

If people played sport at the weekends instead of drinking until they fell down or got into fights there would be fewer admissions then, and they would be fitter and healthier as a bonus - whuich would mean less pressure on the NHS.

I blame the gardeners myself for all that extra demand on A and E at weekends
The only answer is for us all to pay a little more tax. It would be peanuts compared to the cost of individual private medical insurance.
Some of my older relatives are in BUPA and they pay many thousands a year for the privilege. And of course that only covers a few things - consultant appointments and planned operations basically.

Anya, why is it stupid to acknowledge a mother of a doctor sharing her knowledge ?

Westminster allows money for Scotland and Wales, and they use it as they want ( we may be giving them too much!)
think of the millions who live in England ab and it gives you a clue as to why we operate differently.

The stupid remark you made was to do with people playing sport at the weekend.

Well it is eminently possible that the Scottish government may in future add a penny or two to income tax . I am happy with that if an element of ring-fencing can be introduced. The Scottish government has very different priorities to Westminster's and rightly so.
I find your use of 'we' and 'them', along with the implication that the English millions are doling out their cash to Wales and Scotland, very unpleasant.

Sigh! Always somebody ready to be outraged.I was replying to ab who lives in Wales.