COVID-19: 'Real-world' analysis of vaccine in Israel raises questions about UK strategy

Just bumping this up as it was quite late when it went on last night.

Very interesting Pippa Thanks for sharing.

I have been uncomfortable about the U.K. strategy since it was suggested.

Whitewavemark2 - same here, I was instantly suspicious that it was a political, rather than medical, decision.

We are one big experiment here in the UK, taking a big risk - with the rest of the world watching.

Meanwhile (of course) our 'leaders' can crow about how many people are vacinnated. But they're not, are they? They're partly vaccinated. I really do despair!

Israeli epidemiologist in charge of the study: "This is the real-world. And so by seeing the real world impact so early on in the same direction and in the same timing as we've seen in the clinical trials is something that makes us very hopeful."

Israel's most recent Corona Tsar : "Asked about the UK strategy of delaying the second dose, he said the 89% figure seemed "very optimistic" but understood why compromises needed to be made. "If you are short of vaccines, this is a good idea..."

Some SKY reporter with experience of reporting on wars: The first real-world analysis of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine suggests it is matching its performance in clinical trials, but raises serious questions about the UK's decision to delay the second dose.

Some SKY reporter with some experience in reporting health: Over sixties need to keep following the rules after they've been vaccinated ( yeah, we knew that )

I'll not be panicking just yet.

What I like about Algerias’s comments on Covid ( on any thread) is that they are mercifully free of any political slants and come at the subject from a scientific and logical angle.

Apologies Alegrias I often seem to spell your name wrongly.

I’m just glad that the Astra Zeneca vaccine has been designed differently allowing for a 12 week gap (I believe, but that may not be 100%)

lemongrove

Apologies Alegrias I often seem to spell your name wrongly.

No worries Lemon, I've been called worse

None of the vaccines were "designed" with any gap in mind. I saw something online yesterday that I thought explained it well.

It's not like they all did trials with different delays - 2,3,4,5 weeks, whatever, and then decided which the best interval was. The used 3 weeks because they were in a hurry. Oxford managed to do some trials with longer intervals as well.

I think it would be honest to say, from what we know from all sources, that the first vaccine will only give us a third better chance of not getting the virus while also giving us some protection that means if we do get it we will not be as ill. This is great - and necessary - for our hospitals but means individuals must still act with great caution. I really do not want to see Johnson Trumpising when it comes to giving speeches.

What we do not yet seem to know from this "real-world" analysis is how much this will be improved by the second vaccination, but we will shortly.

The government sees the population as a whole not as individuals. For that "whole population" not to fall into chaos they are right to try and protect the hospitals and this is what the 'single dose until we get more' regime will do but they should then be very, very honest about our behaviour, what that single dose can achieve and what can and can't be done to restart the economy safely. Progress is being made but it's human beings that are at risk and we need to each decide how to stay safe.

Panicking never helps any more than giving false or exaggerated information does so I would suggest we don't do either.

As an aside to the comments,if vaccinations need to be carried out until September ,what will happen in 10 to 12 weeks time when the second vaccinations need to be implemented.

That must surely mean a delay of a further 10 to 12 weeksbefore the next tier can receive their first jab. Or am I being stupid??

Sir Patrick Valance (Chief Scientific Advisor), on being questioned about these new figures, was not offering the triumphalism we sometimes hear from Johnson.

He very much gave the impression that nothing is finalised or certain. He implied we would still need restrictions in place, despite the vaccine, for quite a long time. He suggested the lesson we should learn is "go earlier than you think you want to, go a bit harder than you think you want to and go a bit broader than you think you want to in terms of restrictions." He pointed out that this is what the evidence says.

You have got to go hard, early and broader if you are going to get on top of this. My question would be - is Johnson the person who can do this? Listening to this we should be expecting restrictions to last for some time.

PippaZ as well as balancing the health of the nation the PM and government also have to balance the economy. The longer we have restrictions more companies are in danger of going bust. The hospitality industry much be under such a strain.

Yes I've lost all my work Rosie [ freelance in the health sector]. Took me 20yrs to build it up. I got 50% back just before the second lockdown. By the time this 3rd lockdown ends I can see the companies I worked for closing for good!

So sorry yogagirl such a hard situation. We have our own business and expected to be hit hard but so far so good. But the longer this goes on so many people are going to be in financial difficulties Covid will seem the least of their problems

With regard to reports from Israel it’s never wise to just take media reports as factual, they can only paint a snapshot of what is happening and sometimes a distorted one at that.

The scientists are gathering data as we go along, and Prof Stephen Evans, School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine has said The UK will soon have its own data showing efficacy after the 1st dose of the different vaccines currently in use, and any policy changes should await more robust data.

rosie1959

So sorry yogagirl such a hard situation. We have our own business and expected to be hit hard but so far so good. But the longer this goes on so many people are going to be in financial difficulties Covid will seem the least of their problems

I've lost most of my work too, but I don't agree that Covid-19 is the least of my worries. I'd still rather be extremely poor than dead or with "long Covid". I'm high risk, so it's likely that I would have more than a headache and cough for a couple of days.

I agree Greeneyedgirl. It's too early to jump to any conclusions about the situation in Israel. My understanding is that a number of people have been infected after being vaccinated. If that's right, I don't understand the fuss because it's always been understood that people could still be infected. I guess we'll know more in a couple of weeks, when it's known what symptoms the people have had.

www.bbc.com/future/article/20210114-covid-19-how-effective-is-a-single-vaccine-dose

it is indeed very complicated and conroversial.

Growstuff I was more referring to the popular as a whole not just an individual's situation
The economy goes bust and there will be no money for anything including the young and fit who have also sacrificed so much. As I pointed out to my darling Stepmum who complained everybody is not staying at home I did point out people have to earn a living

If you use any drug, or indeed product, not according to the instructions given by manufacturers, which are based on the product research they have done with their experts over months and years- then you are playing Russian Roulette.

Biba70 I've explained this so many times that I think that people are intentionally ignoring the facts.

The manufacturer does not issue instructions. They provide trial data and the approving authorities make decisions based on that.

Pretending that the decision is dangerous is not correct and will only cast doubt on the effectiveness of the vaccine, and that is disgraceful.

rosie1959

Growstuff I was more referring to the popular as a whole not just an individual's situation
The economy goes bust and there will be no money for anything including the young and fit who have also sacrificed so much. As I pointed out to my darling Stepmum who complained everybody is not staying at home I did point out people have to earn a living

So where do you think the money will go?

Growstuff if companies are not making money there wont be any to go anywhere