Statistics table

Very good quote paddyanne.
Scotland is almost as big a country geographically as England and your population is much smaller.
Ours are mostly crowded together in many big conurbations. To me that seems to be the reason for our higher rate of infection.

Scottish reported deaths sitting around a fairly constant 3% 10 last night although there were" missed" 40 added MEANING OUR TOTAL IS 126.the deaths will now be calculated in a different way .The FM gives a comprehensive report daily .As she pointed out today we have our own labs and our own way of doing things though she is happy to accept wisdom from other sources and continue to take part in COBRA meetings . we are happy that she can say "We CAN FIX THE ECONOMY LATER ,WE CANT BRING PEOPLE BACK TO LIFE"

No, that is the point. Quite simply the Covid-19 statistics, any of them, mean whatever you want them to mean.

Also the mental health and physical manifestations from the stress, worry, worry about jobs, mortgages, couped up will manifest itself in about three months. When my Mam died three months later, my hair fell out, I developed lichen sclerosus, Hailey Hailey Disease and Raynauds plus depression from the stress of her dying. Tearfulness had already set in for me

Monica
Did you actually draw any conclusions from that very long article

Thank you for posting that MOnica. Just illustrates what an impossible task it is to predict and model outcomes, and it may be only possible if a large proportion of the population is tested. May in fact only be accurate when it is over?

To further complicate matters I have just read this unherd.com/2020/04/how-likely-are-you-to-die-of-coronavirus/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

There were 540,000 deaths in the UK in 2018 the virus will add to that no doubt, the annual death rate probably won’t change much, that is no consolation if it is one of your loved ones

There's info on the BBC site Coronavirus: how to understand the death toll.
The ONS is trying to determine the proportion of those who are dying specifically of coronavirus, because many who are dying have underlying conditions which are the main cause of death, or would have caused death in the near future. Apparently similar study in Italy showed recorded deaths from coronavirus at realistically around 12%, when not including them.

Population of U.K. 66.44 million.

1% of that is 664,000

563 deaths in last 24 hours

Of course statistics can be manipulated, but I doubt if even the government would dare to cover up registered deaths, although some deaths where Covid-19 was a major contributor factor might not necessarily have it on the death certificate.

The UK is testing less than Germany, so the percentage of deaths would appear higher. The UK just doesn't know how many people have been infected and are infected now.

The rate of death is still following a regular exponential curve with the number of deaths doubling every 2 or 3 days. If it carries on at this rate, there will have been 18,816 deaths in 9 days time. That's probably an underestimate because deaths at home aren't yet being recorded.

It should begin to slow down in about 3 weeks because, by then, the majority of the country will have been infected, assuming the percentage of those who will die is about 1%.

I thought it a reasonable presentation but of course statistics can be biased to prove anything you want. The government would want to paint a fairly gloomy outlook at present, on the other hand the number of deaths reported yesterday are going the same way as Italy.

Davidhs You're right. I scribbled down some figures five days ago and the UK is following the predictions very accurately. We know there's likely to be a big jump before the effects of lockdown begin to have an effect.

I seriously hope everybody is taking it seriously now. Without lockdown, the UK would be heading for over 700,000 deaths by the end of April, which is more than the seasonally adjusted number of deaths from all causes.

Let's hope it doesn't reach that figure.

I don't see how stats can be totally accurate.
For a start some who catch it may have such mild, or no symptoms and they are unaware that they even have it, and recover.
So few people are being tested that I think only confirmed cases and those hospitalised are counted.
Deaths stats lag behind because they need certification
etc and some may die with Covid 19 but not as a result of it (those already ill for example).
Different countries record differently, but the trend seems similar in most.

There was a graph on the news a couple of days ago and it showed the progression of the virus day by day. The UK was following the same trend as Spain and Italy maybe 10 days behind.

If the numbers of those catching it but staying at home to deal with it themselves are not recorded, then the fact that they have recovered won't be recorded either. However, a death HAS to be registered.

Link?