Pollsters predict shock Tory Losses

Fingers crossed.

Very hard VQ, very hard. I think it shows just how upset people were by the Dementia Tax.

I was expecting something like that today, after last night's Paxman programme.
Newsnight is on at the moment with pensioners and young voters.
"Care is not a money sink."

Corbyn was good on The One Show tonight as well.

Stephan Shakespeare, the founder of YouGov predicted that remain would win the referendum.

Good on the One Show? Do you mean he gave away a jar of jam?

You can't go by the polls, when was the last time any of them got it right? I'm crossing my fingers for TM, I might end up crossing my legs too but not my eyes; never have been able to do that.

I give away jars of jam and chutney. Is that a problem?
My grandson helps me make them.

I'm not sure if it was done on the usual basis Jen.

"The poll allows for big variations, however, and suggests that the Tories could get as many as 345 seats on a good night, 15 more than at present, and as few as 274 seats on a bad night."

It looks like the modelling is controversial (especially with Tories I would think) but they used it during the referendum and it always had leave ahead.

Ah - found it.
The model is based on 50,000 interviews over the course of a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov.

This, apparently allows a different and more complex assessment - the details are in the article.

That's a large number and they did need to remodel. Interesting that it is not after last nights interviews - and more hopeful.

Petra, I wonder if it was this modelling that made he do that?

him not he

Zahawi backed leave. That made sure that one of the founders was right.

Actually realised they said this model predicted leave.

This is how some of the papers are attacking Labour because of that poll,GracesGran. Obviously this will be in the next print run of The Times, once they are on message.
All lies, of course, but when did that stop them.

skwawkbox.org/2017/05/30/desperate-times-desperate-cchq-word-goes-out-to-rags-help-ge17/

The Guardian also has a poll with a narrowing lead.

Have you seen Steve Bell's cartoon? Emperor's new clothes?

This is about the yougov poll and model. It always said leave, according to Shakespeare.

thegreatcritique.wordpress.com/2017/05/30/new-yougov-projection-hung-parliament/

Have you seen Steve Bell's cartoon? Emperor's new clothes?

This is about the yougov poll and model. It always said leave, according to Shakespeare.

thegreatcritique.wordpress.com/2017/05/30/new-yougov-projection-hung-parliament/

A problem for blue Labour, isn't it? Do they want to get behind the leader of their party, or not?

i.guim.co.uk/img/media/9310d14fe102c0f8595e32b637f687fbf22a9757/0_0_650_441/master/650.jpg?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=7d28e1603ab15e7df231721d62b16ce1

Bell's cartoon.

<goes into Bernard Woolley mode>
Er, they won't be shock losses if the pollsters are already predicting them, will they?

I know you were only quoting the Times headline gg.

It shocked me Jane

There once was a Labour chap -one of the old Labour ones - who said a week was a long time in politics so no chickens to be counted but if it means the 'land-slide' is smaller I shall be grateful.

I just love the cartoon Jen

Harold Wilson according to Wikipedia

The pollsters are saying that the problem with the surge in support for Labour is that it's in constituencies where support is already high - London, Manchester, Liverpool etc - and the popular vote is unlikely to translate into number of seats. Who knows?

Nevertheless, if the Conservative majority is kept down and the left of centre vote is high, it bodes well for 2022, if Labour can sort out its image without compromising on its progressive policies. The elctorate will be made up of different people.

If the Conservatives fail to win a huge majority, my guess is that there will be a change of party leadership. The names being bandied about are Liam Fox and Amber Rudd. Heaven help us all!

My theory has always been that May called this election, because the back benchers have been sharpening their knives. The election has given her a chance to parachute some loyal "yes people" into safe Tory seats.