Do you think Farage is playing a double bluff game and actually wants to lose this by-election?
Farage is not leadership material, He doesn't want the responsibility of leading a party, especially one that is becoming a serious player. He enjoys being a disruptive influence, of causing rows where ever he goes, tumbling apple carts, being the bull in the china shop.
It is clear that he cannot be bothered to be a proper constituency MP, he may actually want a way out, but being him, he doesn't want to resign and withdraw, he wants to resign and cause as much inconvenience as he can.
He must have realised that the chances are that no respectable party would stand against him and that he may end up with no opponents, but the lunatic fringe. What I do not think he was prepared for was that one of the people behind a lunatic fringe candidate would be a highly educated and thoughtful man with a manifesto of sensible policies.
I think that there is a good chance he could lose, if only binman runs a serious campaign.