Welsh Senedd Election - PR in action. This will be interesting!

I wonder how much of the recent Green Party vote was a negative to all of the others - she sounds like a great credible rep, but I remember great results for the Monster Raving Loony party as a protest vote.

I vote Plaid myself years ago because I had more confidence in them than the main parties.

My beef is that 3 countries of the UK have a sub-assembly but England does not.

I dont know why I said 39. I must have had 13 constituencies in mind not 16. It's 48 of course so if one party were to manage that they would need only one other member to work with them.

Labour 12
😲 In Wales?!

The reality is with a PR system, it’s highly unlikely that one single party will ever have control in the future

Absolutely right, Casdon. Under D’Hondt, it’s virtually impossible for any party to win four of the six seats in any constituency. The turnout would have to be massive as would the vote margin between first and second place.

No party can win more than 39 seats. Nobody apart from perhaps some Tories would work with Reform which would mean Reform winning 39 and the Tories 10.

Latest polling from YouGov shows Reform on 37, Plaid 36, Labour 12, Green 7, Tory 3, LibDems 1, so more likely to be a coalition between Plaid and other parties.

Well presumably they bother, like any party or politician, because even though they are v unlikely to get a majority or ally with another party to do so, having seats means they'll have a vote at Senned, a chance to ask questions on behalf of their supporters etc.
Unless they do the 'Nigel Farage in the EU parliament' look & don't bother to turn up most the time.

The reality is with a PR system, it’s highly unlikely that one single party will ever have control in the future FriedGreenTomatoes2, I’m not making this up. The current poll difference between Reform and Plaid is one seat, so it’s just maths. There are potentially 3 Tory seats, and potentially 20 seats split between Labour, Greens and Lib Dem’s. The predictions obviously won’t be 100% right, but I doubt if they will be far off.

Well if it’s that clear cut Casdon I’m surprised Reform UK haven’t withdrawn! Why even bother if it’s so cut and dried?

Unless of course, in the privacy of the ballot box …. 🤔

Read the beginning of the thread FriedGreenTomatoes2. Reform will not gain control of the Senedd, simply because they do not have enough support. With the PR system they will not be able to win enough seats to rule alone, and apart from the Tories, who are predicted to get only two or three seats, no other party will enter a coalition with Reform.

A toad with a red rosette would normally be enough for folk to vote Labour. Now and again Plaid, basically Labour who speak Welsh, have a bit of resurgence, but it always dies down.

Reform have given ordinary Labour voters in South Wales, where most seats are, an alternative vote for the first time, the fact that voters were willing to ditch Labour was seismic.

Historically they will not vote Tory, that included Mrs Thatcher. Reform were on track to win, Labour had no chance, but they did not want a Reform win, with all that kudos, so Labour stalwarts were told to vote for Plaid. This meant that Labour’s share went down, but Reform did not win.

In May Labour will be calling Reform a wasted vote and hoping that strategy is enough to stop Reform getting control of the Senedd.

No, the clowns will be going for another party altogether., the earnest, Welsh through and through, will be the ones going for Plaid.

Welsh clowns will go for Plaid and then spend years complaining how badly run their country is.

I think it is very different Galaxy, because you will be banded in with the can’t be bothered by anybody looking at the percentage turnout. If you spoil your paper you care enough to turn up and say nobody is for you, and your vote is counted. Each to their own, but we fought hard for the vote for everybody, and I could never bring myself not to vote.

I am very politically engaged on all sorts of issues, I am the opposite of 'not bothered' but I couldn't vote for any of the candidates ( it was 'only' local elections I have no idea how I will feel for the next general election). I don't really see how spoiling my ballot is particularly different to not voting, both forms of 'protest' are measurable in some way.

I might write across it that I don't like the voting system.

I don’t buy the don’t vote at all option, all it says to me is that people can’t be bothered to have their say. I do think spoiling your vote is a legitimate way of protesting though. I wonder if the PR system will encourage the previous can’t be bothered group, because if they support any party or an independent there is a chance that the cumulative vote for them will result in a seat in the Senedd.

Allira

I did that in the last local elections, voted for the candidate whom we know is pro-active but differently in the GE.

I regularly vote for a different party member in locals, pretty much the person I truly believe will do their very best for the ward and local community.

I didn't vote at the last local elections ( for the first time ever), what has happened since then has confirmed to me that that was the right decision for me. I do think not voting is actually part of the democratic process.
I have always had some concerns about PR. I feel as though the 'push' for PR has faded in the last couple of years, and am a little unclear why that might be.

Well, I'm even more confused reading more about it!

Spoiling your vote is 'abstaining' and that is an acknowledged practice.

The shift to full PR really changes the math for the smaller parties. Even if Reform or Plaid poll high, the coalition building is where the real drama happens. It is going to be a long night waiting for those final seat counts.

I did that in the last local elections, voted for the candidate whom we know is pro-active but differently in the GE.

I agree, it’s a significant issue not being able to vote for a candidate you know, and think will do a good job.

I've never not voted before except once when I deliberately spoilt the ballot paper.

Unlike a UK General Election, I might want to vote for a candidate because I know that person would be the best Member for the area even if their party will never form a majority. I don't mind that because I might dislike the party leader. Or perhaps to try stop Reform or Plaid having a majority.

Yes, it’s actually simpler to vote than before, because you will only have one vote for your party of choice, instead of one for your constituency MS and one for the regional seat. You have no say regarding an individual though, as the parties have prioritised their lists of preferred candidates.