Stronger links with Europe? KS

JD Vance is due to visit Orban shortly before the election and Marco Rubio has already been. What does this tell you about the government of the US? Orban is too close to Putin for comfort and Musk has been supporting the AFD in Germany. There's a great podcast on The Rest is Politics about populism which I recommend to anyone with a vote!

Watch out for what happens on the 12th in Hungary. Could be tight. Could be the end of Orban. Fingers crossed🤞.

"The downfall of the far-right could be that there too many splinter groups, too many would be spokespersons who seem to make outrageous statements such as Simon Dudley who has just been sacked. They could end up imploding."

Don't bet on that look at Israel where the far right hold the balance of power, too many splinter groups is bad, to the left or right, PR makes it worse not better.

MartavTaurus, they are just a snapshot. It’s not that they are wrong, it’s just that, like ours, they are opinions.

Coincidentally, I’m actually on holiday in Portugal at the moment, well, Madeira actually, so I could ask people here what they think? There is a centre right government here currently, but it changes, as it does everywhere else. I’d expect a straw poll would reveal a pretty similar picture to the UK in fact, with divisions in the way people vote by age, where they live, etc.

I'm sorry if my conversations with other Europeans might not seem reliable, 😁, (I am fluent in 3 languages), but I do pick up plenty of relevant information.

For example, I was in Portugal the past 10 days. I learned that Chega, a party on the far right, was founded in 2019 by one man, a football commentator, I think.
It grew quickly from one seat in 2019 to 12 in 2022, 50 in 2024, and 60 in the 2025 elections.

Casdon

My point is that it is transitory Allira, the right gain support, fail, the left rises, and vice versa. The voting system in most European countries is proportional representation, which means that extremes won’t gain control, they are more often than not coalition governments.

If they do gain power, though, they can cause a lot of damage, as can any extremist government.

If most of these countries do have proportional representation, that should act as a brake.

Well yes as will happen in America.

My point is that it is transitory Allira, the right gain support, fail, the left rises, and vice versa. The voting system in most European countries is proportional representation, which means that extremes won’t gain control, they are more often than not coalition governments.

MartavTaurus is right, though.

The far-right is gaining momentum in Germany, with the AfD receiving a significant share of the vote. In Spain there are two far-right parties which are gaining in popularity too. They were gaining in Denmark, if the far-right parties combined they would also gain strength.


The left and centrist Governments need to show they are really tackling the problems facing Europe with immigration, because otherwise the far-right groups will gain more in popularity.

We can see here, however, that Reform, although given more publicity than they deserve, is having problems.

The downfall of the far-right could be that there too many splinter groups, too many would be spokespersons who seem to make outrageous statements such as Simon Dudley who has just been sacked. They could end up imploding.

Spain, Denmark, UK, and currently Germany all have left or centrist left governments, and the majority of others have either centrist or centrist right governments MartavTaurus. I’m not sure how reliable your conversation was in predicting the future, but I would suspect not very, in the medium term. It is swings and roundabouts.

Galaxy

There is quite strong support for governments you wouldn't like in France, Germany, Italy, etc, this is the point I am trying yo make, what will you do if those governments you don't like take power in Europe.

I think that's a very valid point we cannot overlook. Add to the list The Netherlands, Hungary and Austria too, and it's obvious that the face of Europe is changing politically.

I've just spent some time with Germans this week, and picked up a fair bit of information about how things are changing politically in their country, and how support is shifting.

Starmer has shown great dignity in not responding to the US president. We should not be involved with someone else's war and we shouldn't worry about the special relationship. Seems to me it means we do what they want. Nice one Keir. We do what we want and we don't want to be involved with illegal wars. As for pmq when he's putting up with the nonsense from across the floor I'm impressed he hasn't battered them.

It is in our interest to maintain as good a relationship as we are able with other countries, but that doesn’t mean we should pretend that relationships don’t change depending on who is in power. Personalities and leadership styles do have an impact, regardless of political persuasion, like it or not, and criticism of those whose styles and actions some people disagree with (ie all leaders) will continue.

Of course we need a closer relationship with Europe in these troublous times. Brexit was an unmitigated disaster for which Farage, Johnson and the numpties are to blame.

I am afraid I am not sure I want alliances based on the political temperature of country over a short period of time, either the political situation is important or not, if it isn't I am not sure why numerous examples are being given of politicians you don't like . It is quite possible that very soon the Democrats will take power in America and then the American electorate will become trustworthy again I suppose.

Good to see Edouard Philippe doing well in the polling for the 2027 Presidential election in France. I always liked him when he was Prime Minister during Covid. A safe pair of hands in troubled times.

Casdon

An alliance with a group of countries is always going to be more robust than an alliance with just one other country though, because political whims are less likely to affect the alliance overall.

I agree.

Galaxy

But presumably people didn't predict Trump before he arried on the scene , and of course there are obvious key players within the European Union, countries will swing from left to right ( or whatever terms we use, personally I am not sure those terms are particularly pertinent these days) I just don't feel it is strategic to base alliances on who is in power.

If I’m honest, I remembering discussing Trump when he first stood for election, around about the same time as Johnson’s stood for election, along with many of my peers we didn’t feel either of them were suitable leaders.

Seems we were right about both, imo, Johnsons’s legacy is “wasting money” and needless Covid deaths, I’m talking about care homes and lack of quick action at the beginning and PPE. Trumps legacy, well, where do we even begin??

What it boils down to , for me, is that I _feel _more European than I feel American , Chinese, or Russian

An alliance with a group of countries is always going to be more robust than an alliance with just one other country though, because political whims are less likely to affect the alliance overall.

But presumably people didn't predict Trump before he arried on the scene , and of course there are obvious key players within the European Union, countries will swing from left to right ( or whatever terms we use, personally I am not sure those terms are particularly pertinent these days) I just don't feel it is strategic to base alliances on who is in power.

Galaxy

There is quite strong support for governments you wouldn't like in France, Germany, Italy, etc, this is the point I am trying yo make, what will you do if those governments you don't like take power in Europe.

Yes but so far there is nothing as bad as Trumpland or Russia.

I don’t see that happening to all countries at the same time though Galaxy? There are a lot of member states in the EU, the whole political spectrum is covered between them, whether a government is right or left leaning fluctuates by country, but overall the mix doesn’t change much.

what will you do if those governments you don't like take power in Europe.

Align with the governments which aren't France, Germany or Italy?

I t would be interesting to see just how powerful France & Germany, as so called 'top table' countries would be in those circumstances. In theory every country has an equal voice

Incidentally, it looks as though Hungary might be swinging back to at least the 'centre' as Orban looks in danger of being defeated.

There is quite strong support for governments you wouldn't like in France, Germany, Italy, etc, this is the point I am trying yo make, what will you do if those governments you don't like take power in Europe.