Matt Goodwin

Sundowngirl 15.58: '68% from 2018 - 2024 have been granted asylum, whilst only 3% have been deported or have voluntarily left. Also, they are not all fleeing from persecution by a regime in their own country as it seems you would believe'.

The majority are being granted asylum and they are found eligible because they are unable to live safely in their own country. The criteria to be granted asylum was made stricter under the National Borders Act 2022 with higher evidential proof. The backlog of cases for asylum assessment reached an all time high of 91,000 by the end of 2024 which the current Labour Government has been trying to clear so as to reduce the need for accommodation and has set a goal to therefore ned the use of hotels to house asylum seekers whilst waiting for their claims to be processed.

For complete and up-to-date details of the criteria for asylum being granted is available official UK government website for claiming asylum:

"To be eligible for asylum in the UK, you must be unable to live safely in any part of your home country due to a well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group. You must be outside your country of origin and unable to seek protection there.

Key Eligibility Criteria:
Well-founded Fear: You must prove a real risk of persecution if you return. This is not just a fear, but a reasonable expectation of harm.
Protection Unavailability: You must demonstrate that the authorities in your home country cannot or will not protect you.
No Internal Relocation: You must show that you cannot safely move to another part of your country to avoid the persecution.
Reasons for Persecution: The fear must be connected to one of the five protected grounds: race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a specific social group (e.g., gender, sexual orientation).

Other Forms of Protection:
Humanitarian Protection: You may qualify for this if you do not meet the strict legal definition of a refugee but face a real risk of serious harm (such as unlawful killing, torture, or degrading treatment) if returned.

How to Claim:
You must apply for asylum as soon as you arrive at a UK port of entry or as soon as you are in the UK.
You must attend a screening interview to register your claim.

Important Notes:
It is vital to provide evidence to support your claim, such as documentation, medical records, or testimony.
You are not permitted to work while your claim is pending, though you may be allowed to work if a decision has not been made after a certain period, subject to restrictions".

twaddle...look up Nelson in Pendle Lancashire and then get back to me.

Not sure that the 2021 census backs up your figures, Dorisdodar.
Maybe I am missing something?

Plenty of news articles about it when you search for them

But of the approximately 16,500 non Muslim voters of Nelson, how many would both agree with him, and buy his book Dorisdodar? I would guess not very many in reality.

LemonJam

Matt Goodwin's is unable to 'calculate' population patterns/increases/changes etc- he can only make 'predictions' by making on 'assumptions' and only do this on previous immigration patterns and data at the time available when he made his 'assumptions'.

What is factually available however rather than assumptions is the most recent immigration data. This shows a dramatic fall in immigration numbers heading towards net zero.

Migration Observatory 27 November 2025 "migration observatory.ox.ac.uk' reported a fall of 78%. In the year ending June 2025 (almost one year into Labour term) a reduction of roughly 70-80% to an annual total of approx 204,000- down from a peak of 900,000 in 2023. This sharp drop was driven by a 662,000 drop in non EU net migration and fuelled by tightened visa rules and health care workers. If this sharp drop continues we could reach a net zero immigration level within Labour's term or lower.

Matt Goodwin's assumptions are merely assumptions and a provocative statement that the UK will become 60%muslim is merely that- a provocative assumption based on misplaced assumptions where the migration patterns and numbers are changing.

Hope you are right Lemonjam!

MaizieD

^Matt Goodwin pointed out that the Muslim population in the UK will be 60% to 40%, on his calculations.^

I went and had a word with the lazy woman's friend, Chatgtp, who said that Goodwin had never actually said that. So, unless that is a direct quote I inclined to believe AI.

It also told me that 'popular belief' exaggerates the proportion of the UK population which is Muslim. When asked to say what percentage of the population is Muslim they tend to give an estimate 4 to 6 times greater than the reality, which is about 6%

Cossy has covered a lot in her post.

AI tells me that while there might be a higher birth rate now succeeding generations tend to lower their birth rate to about the national 'norm'.

As Islam is a religion, not an ethnic group we have to remember that there is a tendency for a growing number of people to claim that they have 'no religion' (census data) so any current extrapolation of numbers may be on the high side. I would suspect that anyone trying to nurture fear, as Goodwin does. will certainly go for the high figure. But there is no guarantee that future generations will follow their parents' religion.

It also tells me that Goodwin's own figures only give a Muslim population of about 20% in 2100

I thought I had read it in his Daily Mail article. I have done a quick internet search which has thrown up that he has predicted a non white majority by 2063.

Galaxy

I am at a loss to understand the appeal of polanski but he definitely has a cult around him.
The deep sexism/misogyny around their support for men in women's spaces, their undermining of the supreme court ruling, etc.

A hateful party , more populist than reform, or any other party, appealing to the very gullible naive, misogynistic members of our population. What possesses Hannah whatshername to throw her lot in with this mob. If Starmer brings in the ridiculous voting for 16 year old, thinking they will vote for him. Think not. Idealist, they will vote for zack/daves/ breast enlargement/ islamists, who will do anything to destroy this country. Bringing sectarian politics, into our country. What have Blair and those after done to our country. All in the name
of making, and succeeding into making Britain a global mess.

Meandrogog 18.24 "I thought I had read it in his Daily Mail article. I have done a quick internet search which has thrown up that he has predicted a non white majority by 2063."

Your internet search threw up MG's prediction because his prediction exists as the DM has reported. Thats doesn't mean that his prediction will come true!

Meandrogrog

Just seen Matt Goodwin has a new book due to be published on monday called Suicide of a Nation. He has an extract from the book in the Daily Mail today, which is excellent. I think this will be well worth purchasing.

Should be a good read. Which I will before making any comments, on whatever is written in our msm press. All of whom have their own agenda. Depending which side of the face they sit upon.

MartavTaurus

I really dislike this obsession with arriving at percentages, as mentioned, to describe people and to put them in boxes.

Sorry to harp back to education as an example, but every year the DfE in its wisdom sends out pupil census forms for the Head to complete. You have to write down next to every pupil a code like WBRI, BAFR, BSOM etc to describe their ethnicity. There's 40 of these flipping codes to choose from and from which percentage figures are worked out! So how does that actually help anyone?

I was lucky. I used to cross through every box and write the word "child" as that's what they were, stuff their ethnicity! We never got questioned about this. (Private school).

Saying there's 20% Muslims, 40% or 60% is of no real relevance in most cases.

However the info I used was taken directly from the 2021 Census, I do get your point, but the simple facts remain that Goodwin may be using totally inaccurate stats in order to scaremonger

Dorisdodar

twaddle...look up Nelson in Pendle Lancashire and then get back to me.

I'm getting back to you, as instructed.

This is what Google has to say about Nelson:

"Based on 2021 Census data, Nelson in Lancashire does not have an overall Muslim majority, although it has a very high Muslim population and several specific wards within the town do have Muslim majorities.

Town-wide Statistics: While different sources show varying figures (ranging from 30% to over 40%), the overall population of Nelson is not a Muslim majority.

Ward-Level Data: According to 2021 Census data analysis, certain wards in Pendle (which includes Nelson and Brierfield) do have Muslim majorities, specifically Brierfield East & Clover Hill, Brierfield West & Reedley, and Whitefield & Walverden.

Demographics: As of 2021, Nelson (Pendle) had a population that was 52.6% Asian/Asian British, with 43% identifying with a white ethnic group. The area is heavily influenced by its Pakistani heritage population.

In summary, Muslim residents are concentrated in specific electoral wards that form a majority within those areas, but not in the town as a whole."

So it would appear I was correct.

That's how I read it twadle.

LemonJam

Meandrogog 18.24 "I thought I had read it in his Daily Mail article. I have done a quick internet search which has thrown up that he has predicted a non white majority by 2063."

Your internet search threw up MG's prediction because his prediction exists as the DM has reported. Thats doesn't mean that his prediction will come true!

That is the nature of predictions, any predictions.

It would appear that you are confusing Muslim with Asian. Not all Asians are Muslims by any means. Some are Hindus or Sikhs or another religion; some have no religion at all, especially if they are second or third generation Asian/British.

According to official data, Nelson does not have a Muslim majority.

Maremia

That's how I read it twadle.

Maybe there's some weird process going on, where people read the same words and come to a different conclusion. Does anybody know if there's a word for this phenomenon?

“twaddle

Maremia
That's how I read it twadle.
Maybe there's some weird process going on, where people read the same words and come to a different conclusion. Does anybody know if there's a word for this phenomenon?“

I would imagine the word for this is very similar to your username

twaddle

It would appear that you are confusing Muslim with Asian. Not all Asians are Muslims by any means. Some are Hindus or Sikhs or another religion; some have no religion at all, especially if they are second or third generation Asian/British.

According to official data, Nelson does not have a Muslim majority.

And the converse is true.

Not all Muslims are Asian.

Ooops, not yours Maremia, Twaddle’s

Allira

twaddle

It would appear that you are confusing Muslim with Asian. Not all Asians are Muslims by any means. Some are Hindus or Sikhs or another religion; some have no religion at all, especially if they are second or third generation Asian/British.

According to official data, Nelson does not have a Muslim majority.

And the converse is true.

Not all Muslims are Asian.

That is true. However, there doesn't appear to be any evidence that a whole town has a Muslim majority.

Some Asians are Christian and some white British citizens are Muslim. I have absolutely no idea why some people are focused on the religion that someone follows. Religion or lack of it has nothing to do with whether a person makes a contribution to society or not, pays taxes, looks after their family and children, cleans their car on a Sunday or likes to watch cricket etc etc . However, for some it's really important. I wonder why????

Given this man's track record, and having read the publisher's summary up thread, I have no inclination whatsoever to read Goodwin's book. I am sick of people like him talking down the country and rabble rousing. We are in a horrible mess at the moment, thanks to 14 years of Conservative corruption and neglect, and it will take a long time to put things right. But scapegoating immigrants will achieve nothing but ill feeling and division - not a great recipe for all pulling together and getting out of the mess.

My comment was about Matt Goodwins book and his predictions and how some people believe them. The Muslim population in Nelson increases every census and it's 5 years since the last one so the figures will now be out of date. The Muslim population in Nelson is mainly Pakistani and Pakistani's from Kashmir so they identify as Asian.

It’s No 7 on Amazon. The Founders Edition sold out within 2 hours as well. That’s a lotta people making the effort before commenting.

25Avalon 9.45

Have you bought the book and read it yet 25Avalon? If so how was it?

I've just googled its ranking on Amazon and its overall rank is "within the top few thousand books on Amazon.com" I then had a look for the book's ratings on Amazon- there is only one rating so far- from Jim who gave the book just one star ⭐️. Jim posted this:

"I found it to be lacking in actual facts, much like the author's recent electoral campaign where his politics were roundly dismissed, to have taken the publics rejection of his politics and views so personally only speaks to the man's character being uniformly out of touch with a long established multicultural population".

I don't think I'll be buying the book on such a poor personal recommendation.