According to government figures (straight from the ,gov.uk website, not AI) some 1.2 million children lived in 'long term workless' households in 2024.
We obviously have no idea how many of these were outwith the 2 child cap, but f they had every one of them lived in 2 child families the over all cost of benefit payments would have been little different to what the potential extra cost of raising the cap will be.
This is worked on a) initially 'averaging' the monthly cost of £339pm for first child and £292.81 for subsequent children (because we have no idea of their relevant numbers) I called it £300 per child, which might have been a bit low, but I got the annual cost to be about £4.32 billion
Then I tried 'assuming that if all the 1.2 million children were in 2 child households then splitting the figure of 1,2 million children 50;50 and calculating half on the 'first child' allowance and half on the 'subsequent' allowance would give me a maximum figure that 'could' actually be paid out at the moment. Which was £4.55 billion.
What the government doesn't seem to publish is the actual amount that is being paid to long term workless households for their children. But I suspect it isn't far short of either of the rough estimates I've made.
Basically, we have absolutely no idea of how many of these families have more than two children, so cannot tell what the costs might be.
This is for those moaning about the increased cost