Follow the Polls

Right, will do mine now too 😃
Labour 400
Conservative 150
Lib Dems 50
SNP 23
Greens 7
Reform 6
DUP 9
Assorted others 5

Here is my prediction

Labour a majority with

438 😄seats

Tory 99 seats

Libs 75seats

Greens 2 seats

SNP 15 seats

Reform 1

Plaid 2

DUP 8

SF 10

That’s me done.

I will be working all night Whitewavemark2 so will have to cast my prediction for the sweepstake at 7.30 this evening.My care home is having a sweepstake too! With a real prize of a large basket of fruit and biscuits, the residents are excitedly hoping to win.😄
I know ours is virtual but I really want that trophy.

A poll by More in Common released Wednesday predicted a 210-seat majority for Labour, showing the party on 430 seats, up 228 from the last election, while the Tories were down 239 seats on 126. The Lib Dems returned as the third party with 52 seats, up 41, while the Scottish National Party held 16 seats, a loss of 32. Reform UK won two seats.

A Focaldata poll also published Wednesday suggested an even higher majority for Labour of 238, allocating the party 444 seats to the Tories’ 108 seats. The Lib Dems would also return as the third party with 57 seats, while the SNP held just 15 of Scotland’s 57 seats. Reform would again win two seats.

I’ll post the final lot of polls as I find them

YouGov’s MRP poll predicts Keir Starmer’s Labour will win 431 seats, up 229 from 2019, with the Tories on 102, down 263 seats from the last election. These numbers would give Labour a majority of 212, the largest the party has ever enjoyed. Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats were on 72 seats, up 61.
Nigel Farage’s insurgent right-wing Reform UK, meanwhile, was predicted to win three seats.

So to begin to prepare for our massive competition.

There are 650 seats in parliament - so try to make the number of seats add up😄😄

Entries will open from midnight tonight and close at 9.30pm tomorrow 04/07.

I’m not sure that there will be any further polls published but if there are I’ll post them asap.

In order to wait for certainty -although they are muttering about challenges because of postal voting etc. the winner will be announced on Saturday as soon as all the seats have been declared.

I will be on holiday, so in case I have something better to do I’m sure someone can step in to adjudicate😄😄😄

😄😄😄

Whitewavemark2

Is “proballistic” even a word?

😂 No...

'probabilistic' is...

Is “proballistic” even a word?

Apparently Survation has been the most accurate in recent years, but it isn’t very different to the others.

It is their last poll before the election.

Oh I was just going to post the survation one😄. I’ll do it again😄

NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997

Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.

Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3

34,558 interviews…

Survation tonight saying Labour will have more seats than in 1997. Still showing the Tories as the official opposition

LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3

Data: www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/

Politico dated 01/07
Identical to BBC except top two parties are 1 more point each but gap the same.

BBC dated 01/07

Labour 40%
Tory. 20%
Reform. 16%
Lib Dem. 11%
Green. 6%
SNP 3%
Plaid 1%

Check out whether yours is one of these key seats where tactical voting could keep out the Tories

stopthetories.vote/keyseats?link_id=7&can_id=1034eefb8f8351f82f963c5485142d81&source=email-why-im-voting-tactically-on-thursday&email_referrer=email_2375076&email_subject=why-im-voting-tactically-on-thursday

Same here MayBee!

I think our Labour candidate should win - this has always been a safe Labour seat. However, there’s been a boundary change this time, which significantly alters the ‘dynamics’ of the constituency. I’ll be heartbroken if he doesn’t win - he’s been an absolutely brilliant MP, both in the constituency and in the HoC.

We’ve also got a lot more candidates standing than in previous elections. We’ve got a nasty Reform candidate and a Pro-Life one who sent out a (IMO) highly disturbing campaign leaflet.

So, I think the local battle in my constituency may be a bit more difficult than usual.

I’ve had a look but there is nothing of a later date than 30/6 so at the moment the Electoral Calculus data stands.

There is some interesting stuff in The Economist - how people vote by region, age, Brexit vote, gender etc -all sorts. Labour is winning in every case except our age group, where the Tories are slightly above Labour.

As soon as I see later stuff I’ll post it.

I might be able to sleep properly after Friday. Our local candidate is doing an election playlist. If Labour win I’ll be overjoyed but if our candidate wins it will be the icing on the cake.

I'm glad its over on Thursday!

I think that we must be reasonably confident that there is about a 20 point lead by labour, but I think where it seems to go pear shaped is when they start adding in the other parties.

Whitewavemark2

Casdon Yes entries are open at midday snd close before the exit poll is announced so closed say at 9pm.

That sounds ideal. I do the think Electoral Calculus prediction today is OTT.

I’ve noticed that on YouTube I’ve been getting a lot of targeted LibDem ads over the last few days, along the lines of ‘In your constituency only the LibDems can beat the Conservatives, so vote for us’ - this is one way they will get through to the youth vote, who on average watch a lot more YouTube than our age group I suspect.

Mamie

Whitewavemark2

Will macron team up with the left?

It looks as if they might be thinking about a deal with the left for candidates to stand down in some constituencies to prevent splitting the vote and letting the right in.

Good idea

Whitewavemark2

Will macron team up with the left?

It looks as if they might be thinking about a deal with the left for candidates to stand down in some constituencies to prevent splitting the vote and letting the right in.

Politico have posted an update but the only difference is Reform dropping to 15%

Casdon Yes entries are open at midday snd close before the exit poll is announced so closed say at 9pm.