Labour and Lib-Dems sign a non-aggression pact

DaisyAnne, voters in local council elections are predominantly interested in the local issues that impact on their lives and what the candidates are offering on that level. In the case cited, the successful candidate had lived there for 26 years. He was well placed to understand local issues. It’s not a reflection of thinking on a national level. For instance I would vote Conservative in a general or by-election but our local LibDem councillor lives nearby and has an excellent understanding of, and track record of dealing with, local problems so gets my vote in a local election but I wouldn’t vote for him were he to stand for Parliament. I’m only interested in what he does for us here, not his wider political views. That’s not an unusual situation.

Germanshepherdsmum I totally agree with your post if 16.58

Thanks GG.

Voters in the County of Northamptonshire were badly let down by the Conservative administration which were so incompetent in running the county's finances that they effectively bankrupted the county and had to be bailed out by the government.

The county was subsequently split into two unitary authorities and the voters, who seemed to have learned nothing, elected Conservative administrations in both.

The Conservative councilor representing Oundle in North Northamptonshire turned out to be even more useless than most She attended only 4 meetings out of 21 and claimed £10, 000 expenses, then left the district.

It does seem to take a lot for dyed in the wool Tory voters to wake up, but perhaps even they have reached their limit.

They now have a good Liberal Democrat councillor who is local and will work for the benefit of local people, which is a change for the better.

Local elections are different. Usually the Lib Dems are good locally. The worst MP we ever had was a Labour one. He worked for his interests!

Germanshepherdsmum

*DaisyAnne*, voters in local council elections are predominantly interested in the local issues that impact on their lives and what the candidates are offering on that level. In the case cited, the successful candidate had lived there for 26 years. He was well placed to understand local issues. It’s not a reflection of thinking on a national level. For instance I would vote Conservative in a general or by-election but our local LibDem councillor lives nearby and has an excellent understanding of, and track record of dealing with, local problems so gets my vote in a local election but I wouldn’t vote for him were he to stand for Parliament. I’m only interested in what he does for us here, not his wider political views. That’s not an unusual situation.

I think you and 'DaisyAnne' both make valid points actually.

Some, I'm sure, vote at a local level, but others are more partisan. So a local election result probably isn't a good barometer of forecasting the result of a general election.

In my own constituency the Tory candidate has run himself ragged over the planned closure of the A&E department of our local hospital - something that affects so many people, especially the elderly who form a large part of the community in my town. Against all odds he has managed to overturn the decision and although it's not yet fully operational the plan is to make it so within months. Without his tireless effort it would most certainly have closed, leaving the nearest A&E - very overstretched- nearly 40 / 50 miles away (depending on where you live).

I'm not a natural Tory voter - but am hard pressed not to vote for him.

Freya5

Whitewavemark2

Germanshepherdsmum

Well that sounds very much like depriving people of a real choice Maizie.

The majority of the British voter has been deprived of their centre left government of choice for past decade.

Do you really think the majority of the British public are centre left, not sure as Corbyn would have been in power, not Johnson if that was the case. Even red areas couldn’t stomach the thoughts of Labour with Corbyn in charge. Still now it’s Starmer, who knows. A local by election today, bet with my daughter Labour will get back in, at the moment a Conservative.

Well I lost my bet. Conservatives retained the seat. This is a town that for years was a Labour stronghold. Guess we don’t count though as nothing mentioned in press.

I assume it was simply a local election Freya, as you mention a town. Not a parliamentary election. Conservatives retained control. What is there for the press to be interested in, other than the local rag?

Germanshepherdsmum

I assume it was simply a local election Freya, as you mention a town. Not a parliamentary election. Conservatives retained control. What is there for the press to be interested in, other than the local rag?

True.

The reason that the Liberal Democrats and the Liberals before them do far better locally than nationally is in part due to party funding - neither from trades unions funding Labour or wealthy donors funding the Conservatives, because both of these parties can be relied upon to promote the interests of their funders, and partly due to the fact that support for the Liberals is spread quite evenly around the country, which means, under First Past The Post, very few, if any safe seats.

People who would like to vote for the LibDem, but live in a constituency where the party's candidate is unlikely to win, end up voting Tory or Labour, depending on which they hate the least.

I know this is going back a long way but there was a poll just before the 1979 election, (where Margaret Thatcher won a 70 seat majority with 43.9% of the vote) which asked the question "Would you vote Liberal if you thought the Liberals would win?"- and 42% said "YES"

Except for a few months 25 years ago, when we first moved to our current home, we have never had an MP who was not a complete waste of space.

We moved to a constituency with a good active centrist Conservative MP, but there was a general election and he stood down. Our current MP was helicoptered in as a candidate at the last minute, after the the first one's successor was one of the MPs who refused to back Mrs May's Brexit deal, and temporarily had the whip withdrawn. He then decided to stand down and find something useful to do.

I know absolutely zilch about our current MP and he is keeping absolutely out of sight in our village. We have had a long standing problem with a railway bridge in the village and all we were getting from the County Council and Conservative County Councellor was flannel and flap and no action. At last year's election a Lib Dem candidate won the poll and she has been nonstop action. There have been geological and structural investigations and the bridge has been reduced to one lane with alternating traffic and budgets have been found and we might now actually get a safe or even a new bridge.

A few facts.

There are not enough Labour target seats for them to win independently.

All parties opposing the Conservatives will have limited resources. The more seats you target the more resources you need. Resources are not just money but people on the ground too.

The local candidate can increase votes; so can a group of activists who know how to campaign. However, seats change hands dramatically, as we saw with the Red Wall seats, because of a carefully targeted campaign.

For every seat the Conservatives lose at the next GE they reduce the Conservative majority by two.

There are currently 360 Conservative MPs. In theory, with 650 MPs, 326 are needed to have a majority of 2. It isn't that many. The Speaker and Deputy Speakers don't vote (4 votes). Sinn Fein does not take up their seats in Parliament (7 votes). Therefore 320 seats will work as a majority.

If Sinn Fein maintains their 7 seats in the next election and the Conservatives lose 20 seats overall, although they would still form the government, they cannot guarantee they would win any votes in Parliament.

The Liberal Democrats have 30 target seats - seats they have a realistic chance of winning. Neither of the two seats the Lib Dems gained from the Conservatives last year will be seen as target seats. They are seen as hard to win, safe Tory seats. It is not unreasonable to think the Lib Dems, alone, could remove the Conservative majority. If they can win half of the very winnable seats the Labour would only need to win 5.

There are around 47 so-called Red Wall Seats. They will not all flip back. A small number of them have been moving to blue for a while because of demographic changes.

Suppose that the Lib Dems take 15 of their target seats. Let us also suppose Labour win back 40 Red Wall seats. This is on the pessimistic side. Let's also assume neither party gains anything elsewhere. This would mean the Conservatives were still the largest party in parliament. It would also mean they do not have a parliamentary majority even with backing from the DUP.

We can expect the Tories to say that only they can form a strong government and that Labour cannot win enough seats on their own. There will be talk of a messy hung parliament.

However, the election will take place after a decade of Conservative power, with the economy quite likely in ruins and where floating voters are unlikely to have the strong objections to the alternatives that they did in the last election. So many may think a hung parliament better than continuing with a Conservative government with very limited power in Parliament. Conservatives would not be able to legislate without cross-party support.

So what if the LDs won 20 of their winnable "target" seats and Labour won 80 around the whole country. This would put Labour on 278 seats to the Conservative 260. Labour could now form a minority government. While not ideal it would mean removing the Conservatives power in Parliament and also removing them from Government as well. They would lose all control.

This would still mean vote trading would take place. This can slow legislation; that does not please the voter. However, articles in mainstream papers are talking about relationships being built ahead of the GE. They are talking to each other and discussing common areas of interest. This is bound to include electoral reform which is a top policy aim for many who back either the Labour or Lib Dem parties and smaller parties who may not be part of the discussions. This is as much in Labour's interest as it is in the Lib Dems and all other parties, members and supporters other than the Conservative Party.

This sounds like a Progressive Alliance (not an electoral alliance), i.e., joining forces for a legislative programme once the balance of power has been decided. It can be used where no party has enough seats to drive an agenda that is against the will of all the other MPs. It is being used by the SNP and Greens in Scotland and Labour and Plaid in Wales.

This is tough for Labour and the LDs but it is possible. It seems very possible they the Conservatives will lose parliamentary power but, as things stand in the poll ratings, out of the government as well.

Sadly, this is also the reason why the Dirty Parliament may keep Johnson in power. They believe their biggest threat is that there is no one else in their party who "may" be able to hang on to Red Wall seats.

Source material: A Different Bias

Whatever it takes we must rid ourselves of this corrupt incompetent government.

‘Whatever it takes’? Lord help us.

I can totally see what it does not fit with your plans Germansm.

Germanshepherdsmum

‘Whatever it takes’? Lord help us.

Isn't that exactly the guiding phrase that Johnson follows? At least this is honest.

What do you say to those who follow a liar and a clown? How do you talk to those who support a charlatan who seems to have lied his way into every position he has held, only to be turfed out when people can stand no more? What do you say to those supporting a man who is happy to endanger democracy to keep his job? How do you answer those who praise a person who traffics in racism and is so careless in understanding his brief he endangers the lives of others; a man who believes in nothing but his own advancement and power.

So I hope your Lord does help you to see what you support. What has been talked about on this thread is an honest and open way to allow the majority to have what they would choose; and that for the first time in over a decade.

DaisyAnne

Germanshepherdsmum

‘Whatever it takes’? Lord help us.

Isn't that exactly the guiding phrase that Johnson follows? At least this is honest.

What do you say to those who follow a liar and a clown? How do you talk to those who support a charlatan who seems to have lied his way into every position he has held, only to be turfed out when people can stand no more? What do you say to those supporting a man who is happy to endanger democracy to keep his job? How do you answer those who praise a person who traffics in racism and is so careless in understanding his brief he endangers the lives of others; a man who believes in nothing but his own advancement and power.

So I hope your Lord does help you to see what you support. What has been talked about on this thread is an honest and open way to allow the majority to have what they would choose; and that for the first time in over a decade.

So what happened at the last election. You had your chance then. Unless the Opposition party fields someone who appeals to all, it’s never going to happen. The left may be the majority on this forum , but it is not the majority of the British public. Otherwise Corbyn would be the PM.

I didn't Freya. As a member of the anyone but Tory group, I was not aware of any discussion, any plan, or any way of achieving this. You are talking as if all those who are appalled by Conservative governments are members/supporters of Labour. If you don't realise they are not you will not know what you are up against - which is a good thing I didn't want Corbyn any more than you did but I wanted, and still want, the Tories even less.

Just out of interest, are you a Trump follower too?

Can I just say that it is intensely irritating when it is assumed that anyone pointing out the many faults of Johnson is automatically a Corbyn supporter? I don't loathe Johnson and his cronies because they are Tories, I loathe them as liars and cheats and this applies irrespective of their political beliefs. There are many decent honourable Tories but we all know what happened to them.

^ Unless the Opposition party fields someone who appeals to all, it’s never going to happen.^

And I would remind you, Freya, that Johnson did not 'appeal to all' at the last GE. he only appealed to 43% of those who voted. The majority, 57% of voters, didn't want him. It is only the peculiarities if our first past the post system of voting that put him where he is.

And, to be honest, I think that 'even Corbyn' could have made a better fist of the job than Johnson has.

GillT57

Can I just say that it is intensely irritating when it is assumed that anyone pointing out the many faults of Johnson is automatically a Corbyn supporter? I don't loathe Johnson and his cronies because they are Tories, I loathe them as liars and cheats and this applies irrespective of their political beliefs. There are many decent honourable Tories but we all know what happened to them.

Can I just say that it is intensely irritating when it is assumed that anyone pointing out the many faults of Johnson is automatically a Corbyn supporter?

Isn't it just! I also found this with the Brexit issue - because I'm a Remainer, it was assumed I was a 'woke leftie'. Do people not realise that both Leave and Remain were comprised of Left and Right?

I've spoken to a number of traditional Tory voters in my town who are critical of Johnson - perhaps they're closet Corbyn admirers ?

... and, like you, I dislike Johnson intensely - but not because he's a Tory - he's a pathological liar entirely absorbed with his own ambition to the point, I think, where he will stop at nothing to remain in power. In short, I believe he's a megalomaniac and that's why I do not like him... and I'm neither 'woke' nor a 'leftie'.

It is also intensely irritating when a Conservative voter is automatically assumed to be a Johnson supporter.

Where have you said you are not or called out the behavior of this government GSM. Where have you pointed out that this is your position? I apologise if I have missed it but I have not seen you say that you are not.

I have said several times that I didn’t want Johnson as PM Daisy. However I don’t tar all members of the government with the same brush.

Germanshepherdsmum

I have said several times that I didn’t want Johnson as PM Daisy. However I don’t tar all members of the government with the same brush.

But you are prepared to support his policies. I’m not sure if there is a difference.