After these elections, Labour will be forced into a serious confrontation with the elemental shape-shift in British politics, a gradual evolution that suddenly exploded into Brexit. There is no going back to the old certainties of left and right or geography, warns Curtice.
Johnson’s tanks are parked on acres of Labour’s old lawns, with his “levelling up” and “left behind” talk and his shameless towns fund bribes to newly won northern seats. The danger is that all that’s left for Labour is to defend poor and disadvantaged people, who don’t vote much anyway: Labour’s high score for caring doesn’t earn many votes. The party founded to represent the working class reels in shock at losing seats in places long considered working-class heartlands. Labour may wish Brexit would vanish down a memory hole, but Curtice warns it remains the key electoral divide – and Johnson plans to make extolling Brexit benefits a centrepiece in the next election. As “80% of Labour’s vote now comes from remain supporters, the only realistic choice open to the party is to craft an appeal that will maintain and enhance its support among remain voters, be they working class or not,” writes Curtice.
A majority in the 2019 election, 52%, voted for parties backing a second referendum: Labour must come to terms with its new nature as the party backed by the urban and suburban, young, skilled, graduates and ethnic minorities. It needs to win seats like London’s Bromley and Chislehurst, which Curtice tells me would take Labour into a majority – and that’s not impossible, as young, well-educated people spread out to old Tory suburbs. Can Labour cope with such an identity change?
It will be more at ease contemplating the Johnson government’s likely fall from grace by next spring. As last month’s budget made cuts in virtually every department, Britain will be deep in a new austerity, for all Johnson’s promises. The NHS has nothing like the money or staff to cope with unprecedented waiting lists, nor have schools a fraction of what it takes to help children catch up. Youth unemployment will be worse and local councils poleaxed again. The Tory party will be riven between fiscal old-timers demanding cuts to the deficit, and Johnson’s desire to splash out on eye-catchers.
Cassandra-like doom warnings won’t get Labour elected – but there will be an urgent yearning for it to paint a picture of a far better country, with Joe Biden’s boldness and borrowing suggesting the way ahead. The current euphoria will fade as people tire of Johnson’s sleazy salesmanship. There will be no Tory levelling up, as his tanks on Labour lawns will be exposed as cardboard disintegrating in the austerity rain.
Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist
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