Anyone live in Leicester? The lockdown there has been extended.

If some viruses mutate so they can colonise more individual hosts then they will colonise more hosts given the hosts can infect each other. Mutation is one of the variables of natural selection, the other variable is struggle for existence. True. it seems a step too far to think of viruses "struggling" that is because it's a bad metaphor.

The key to controlling virus then is to make the hosts less accessible to virus transmission

From an Italian Doctor.
the swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or 2 months ago

GrannyGravy13

Look at the differing opinions between the official SAGE and the so called ^unofficial SAGE^

I think we can say the data is right though GG13 - it is fact. It's the modelling which is less exact.

Perhaps the government have been able to learn from this but in an emergency it's not possible to test a theory. I have never expected them to get it all right; isn't that why they call it a "novel" or previously unrecorded virus? I do expect the government to be prepared though.

The Italian Dr is Alberto Zangrillo.

MerylStreep

From an Italian Doctor.
^the swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or 2 months ago^

I think the Italian doctors have said they have been seeing a very different scenario from the original one but the one I saw talking about it did point out that the people they were seeing originally were the worst of the worst. They are now hospitalising people who just wouldn't have got a bed originally. Wouldn't this be a possible reason why the people have a lower viral load?

Alexa

Growstuff objected:

"I don't think the virus itself does adapt."

Good point.I am not sure now what I meant by what I wrote.
Does virus mutating according to natural selection not affect virus?

Coronavirus has mutated. It's an RNA virus, which tends to be more unstable than a DNA virus. However, it hasn't mutated that much and the mutations haven't made it stronger or weaker - just slightly different.

www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#The-new-coronavirus-is-mutating,-but-very-slowly

PS. Urmstongran Heneghan has some interesting views - I'm still looking up some of his original writing.

GrannyGravy13

Urmstongran Unfortunately the government don't have a crystal ball

Perhaps one of the GN members could lend them theirs? ?????

Did Churchill have a crystal ball?

Alexa

If some viruses mutate so they can colonise more individual hosts then they will colonise more hosts given the hosts can infect each other. Mutation is one of the variables of natural selection, the other variable is struggle for existence. True. it seems a step too far to think of viruses "struggling" that is because it's a bad metaphor.

The key to controlling virus then is to make the hosts less accessible to virus transmission

Exactly! Viruses need a host to be transmitted. They're not strictly speaking alive in the first place. That's why social distancing is critical.

Furret

GrannyGravy13

Urmstongran Unfortunately the government don't have a crystal ball

Perhaps one of the GN members could lend them theirs? ?????

Did Churchill have a crystal ball?

I'm not sure why you ask? Churchill made some horrendous mistakes. I do hope you are not expecting Johnson to be another Churchill or I fear you are going to be extremely disappointed.

Exactly the opposite.

#wandersoffwomderingwhatplanetimon

I think the one thing everyone on here can agree on is that there is more about this virus that we don’t yet know, rather than unequivocal, undisputed facts.

Surely that’s the problem facing all the experts/scientists, as well as of course the government, which for all the criticisms levelled at it, desperately wants to beat this pandemic as much as the rest of us.

Until we get to the stage that the amount we know for certain about the virus vastly outnumbers that which we don’t know, there will always be differing opinions won’t there?

We do actually know an awful lot about coronavirus - at least scientists do. The trouble is there has been so much misinformation and quackery.

Science is never something set in stone. Everything is always a hypothesis until something with better proof comes along.

The virus itself is very well understood and we know how it's transmitted. We know how it affects the human body and we know who is most likely to suffer from a more serious form of the virus and, in most cases, why. We know what host it needs and we know how to stop transmission. We don't have a vaccine yet and it's possible there will never be one, so the only thing which makes sense is to prevent transmission.

Of course, the optimal way to stop transmission is bad for the economy and the only serious disagreements seem to be between those who want to stop transmission and those who think that the economy is more important and that deaths of the most vulnerable are inevitable and unimportant.

I don't think that's entirely accurate JenniferEccles. However, this thread seems to share quite a bit with the Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic? thread and I have just put a long answer on there. It seems pointless to repeat everything on two different treads.

I do think the Leicester system i.e. treating virus as sporadic outbreaks might work quite well.

Going off piste a bit here, but, if this situation ever ends, I’d like to say that Leicester is a great place to visit!
The Richard 111 Visitor Centre is excellent, and there is plenty more - good shopping centre too.

We were there last year, Ealdemodor but unfortunately didn't have time for a visit although DH is keen to go (we were there for a funeral). I did manage to trace a bit of my family history around the area.

Like everyone I guess I am desperately hoping one of the vaccines proves effective.

Then of course it’s essential that Trump doesn’t buy up the entire quantity.

Back to what we know/don’t know. I was thinking about immunity. I understand it’s not yet certain if catching the virus once gives any sort of immunity.

Apparently there’s a difference between antibodies and T cell action.

I am reassured that scientists all around the world are working flat out to beat this blasted thing !

China have just vaccinated lots of the military.

Vaccines are the big unknown. It's not so much that scientists disagree but they just don't know. Meanwhile the only way to stop it is to prevent transmission. I don't think anybody seriously disagrees about that.

MayBee70

China have just vaccinated lots of the military.

I don't suppose the military had much choice. I'm not so sure our military would be so keen to be used as human guinea pigs.

I'm sure they would be willing to volunteer although they may have the right to refuse.

Alexa

It seems a good idea to regard the virus as adapting to sporadic outbreaks .

Is it true about Leicester's clothing factories being staffed by underpaid Asian workers who have had to continue working as normal before the pandemic?

That is what an article in, I think, the Guardian reported. That the factory owners were claiming furlough payments for the staff but insisting they came in. The article also said that a large proportion of the clothing being made was, or is, for Boohoo.

It is a fact that there appear to be a lot of unregulated small clothing manufacturers in the affected areas.

It sounds as though the police and public health officials are going to be kept busy.

Maybe people who have criticised sweat shops in undeveloped countries should have been looking closer to home.

More than anything, we all need transparency, the truth and good communication.

following all the cuts to public spending, the attack on so-called useless quangos etc, there are far fewer inspection officials to seek out and regulate all areas of public health and safety. including environmental health, trading standards, health&safety executive etc. anyone for sweatshops?
remember how the very phrase 'elf n safety became a watchword for mockery. not so funny now.
we don't notice how our lives depend upon standards and regulation until we complain at their absence/ inadequacy.

And just who do you think own these sweatshops?