33 days to go .... What’s the Brexit plan?

European leaders have little incentive to compromise – as Boris acknowledged ruefully in his rage about the “Surrender Act” – when they can wait until October 19 for him to come back asking to delay Brexit!
☹️

Don’t spend even a moment “analysing” this latest UK offer on the Irish border

It’s not amendable into something workable. Don’t bother with if-Macron-says-then-Varadkar-will efforts to see ways forward.

This is designed by London to fail.

It’s No Deal or bust on 31 Oct now.

Reaction to the plan

It is not a serious proposal and presumably what they’re doing is simply trying to avoid a deal to get to no-deal.”

Former Northern Ireland negotiator Jonathan Powell says the PM’s Brexit offer is a political strategy to enable a no-deal Brexit

THE PLAN

Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
First, the broad offer:

- Northern Ireland remains aligned for agri/industrial goods, dynamically, for four years
But remains in UK customs territory, so customs checks N-S border in Ireland.

So that creates TWO borders.

- one east-west between GB and NI, which will require declarations for goods moving to NI after 2021
- and one N-S for customs etc. along lines

- BUT the UK will seek an immediate and blanket exemption from Union Customs code in next 10 days.

- NO longer looking to punt customs Q into future relationship, but wants in-principle UK agreement in Withdrawal Agreement. /
The UK will not ask for an extenstion to transition period.

GB will leave with FTA by 2021, leaving NI in this time-limited arrangement.
The UK wants NI OUTSIDE the EU's VAT regime - which is a massive lacuna for EU Commission which considers VAT major fraud risk/need for checks controls.

AND UK wants NO level-playing field alignment, while remaining permanently in Single Electricity Market
After four years, NI parties get a 'say' on whether to a) continue alignment with EU single market regs OR b) align with GB/UK 'mainland'

Do you get that? In practice that means DUP 'veto', since way Stormont works, they can always effectively block decision to stay aligned

But there is no mirror/equvialent mechanism to go the other way - ie for NI to choose to join EU CU to avoid the hardening border that would result form decision for NI to 'rejoin' UK.

I cannot see this causing anythign other than anger in NI context. /Lots more detail in the stories...but given EU red lines

- fully open border
- preserving north-south co-op
- integrity of single market

...how can this POSSIBLY be squared with UK request?

Understand Dominic Cummings told meeting of top advisers last Friday that UK "won't be hanging around to negotiate" - “If they reject our offer, that’s it.”

What is the UK's nominal gambit here?

See tactical analysis here, but the idea is to box in Ireland - as
recently reported, UK dips running round saying
@LeoVaradkar
will cave

The aim, I think, is to present a choice:

EITHER - no deal now, and customs border immediately

OR - accept a deal, get £££, citizens rights etc and orderly transition to this 'tech' border

The hope is Merkel and co will squeeze Ireland

But that totally misses

a)
@LeoVaradkar
preference to have a no deal, if he must, to give leverage to solution he wants (rather than acquiescing in a border)

b) Merkel's attachment to EU unity and intergity of SM
n summary?

I cannot for the life of me see how this flies; or could ever be intended to fly.

Be interesting to see public EU reaction. 14/ENDS

The Govt, and esp. the Prime Minister, with their talk of 'Let's get Brexit done and move on', are deliberately peddling the notion that if we leave the EU on 31 October life will be back to normal by 30 November. They are peddling it in particular to the least educated, as they peddled the red bus, and it is despicable. Esp as these are the very voters who will suffer most as prices rise.

40+ years of being in the EU is going to take some extricating

On another thread there are at least two Leavers who seem to think that it'll be all done and dusted as soon as we leave.Such a range of beliefs is worrying...

Erm... I think most of us DO realise this is only the end of the beginning jura. But just because something is going to be protracted, time consuming and fiendishly difficult is no reason not to crack on.

40+ years of being in the EU is going to take some extricating.

I for one, happen to think it is worth it.

What I’ve been saying all along ... ?

From friend Mike:

'The massive mistake almost everyone makes on both sides is to imagine that Brexit is a finality.

It's the exact opposite.

It would merely be the beginning of a very long, complex, expensive and arduous process of the UK renegotiating hundreds of agreements of all kinds, including over 750 trade agreements, most of them with countries that are not in the EU.

While the EU27 members would continue uninterrupted trade with the other EU countries and also uninterrupted trade under FTAs with other countries outside it, from the position of force and influence that only a massive trading bloc of 450 million can provide, the UK will be starting again from scratch.

As a nation of only 66 million, it will of course be in an inferior bargaining position than it has been in the past 45 years, with an economy based on services for 80% of its GDP rather than on manufacturing, goods and agriculture.

Those are not arguments one way or the other. Those are simply the facts.

People have some waking up to do. A look at the true demographic and trading facts would be a place to start.

Brexit would be like the very beginning of a long car journey. Brexit ends with unlocking the car door.

It's afterwards that the engine will have to be started, the route mapped out, the wheels set in motion and the actual trip started with all its traffic problems and inevitable accidents along the way.

It will be expensive, complicated, long and difficult. No one denies this any longer. Not even the government.

So Brexit is not the end of a journey. It is not even the end of the beginning of a journey. It is just the beginning of the beginning.'

A game of high stakes poker

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/30/boris-johnson-brexit-election

Urmstongran, I believe that should Johnson resign the whole government then under the fixed term parliament act the Queen would call Jeremy Corbyn to the palace and ask him if he feels he could form a minority government.

That may well prove possible should he guarantee the other opposition parties that the new minority government would be limited to the sole purpose of gaining an extension to article fifty and then he would resign that government. Such a situation would inevitably then lead to a General Election as there would be no other option.

The above is very similar to what the opposition parties in the House of Commons are considering at present, with the exception that this shambles of a government would be brought down by a vote of no confidence.

It was on twitter yesterday, WwMk2.

You hear everything first on twitter

32 days or The 12th of Never.
whilst the can gets kicked further down't road

In today’s ‘Metro’ WW

Boris Johnson ‘will collapse government’ if he can’t agree Brexit deal Jimmy NsubugaSunday 29 Sep 2019 9:07 am

Read more: metro.co.uk/2019/09/29/boris-johnson-will-collapse-government-cant-agree-brexit-deal-10826806/?ito=cbshare
Twitter: twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: www.facebook.com/MetroUK/

ug where did you hear/read that?

Boris is saying he’s prepared to ‘collapse the government’ if his deal is not passed by Parliament on 18 October. He says he will ask all members of his Cabinet to resign.

Cummings just adding his fuel to the flames, Ug. Agent provocateur, fifth columnist etc. He wants everyone to be fired up.

Fortunately, although it can be very useful, twitter is not omnipotent.

No10 chief Dominic Cummings fuelled Remainer paranoia last week by insisting there are 'loopholes' in the rebel law. (Benn’s Bill aka ‘the Surrender Act).

Mr Cummings told Sky News: 'There are obviously loopholes here, because Remain lawyers are all babbling away on Twitter about the loopholes, so they say themselves that there are loopholes.'

We’d better fasten our seatbelts during October.

Something most certainly is afoot! Apparently Johnson's campaign backers in the City stand to gain billions if we leave on 31 October. About £8.3 billion of short positions have been taken out by hedge funds connected to either Johnson or the Vote Leave Campaign or both, on a No Deal Brexit.

Also afoot is the desire to leave the EU before the new tax avoidance rules come in on 1 January.

Wonder how this will go

David Carroll ?
@profcarroll
·
It appears that both Barr and Bannon are in Italy right now. Bannon has a subpoena for #CambridgeAnalytica waiting for him when he gets home.

Hmm

alan rusbridger
@arusbridger
·
My periodic reminder that Dominic Cummings was vehemently in favour of two referendums. One to establish the principle, the other to allow the public a say on the actual terms. (Via Matthew Parris)

I’m not sure what’s afoot - but something is! Im wondering whether (a) the Benn Act has the loopholes ascribed to it, meaning it can be challenged or (b) does Article 50 mean leaving with No Deal is actually a legally binding conclusion - thereby trumping the Benn Act?

A cat called order ??

Rt. Hon. Ton Meeuwis Esq. #FBPE #FBR ?
@111meeuwi
Speaker Bercow was already quite liked in the Netherlands, but after appearing in three talk shows while being funny and talking with love about his wife Sally (blushing in the audience) and his children and cat Order, he is a proper hero here.

We must ensure that we do not play that creepy, scary and violent game.

Probably spot on- sick, disgusting and totally undemocratic and destructive. Cummings on speed.