According to Isabel Hardman, writing in the right wing magazine The Spectator,
"Tory MPs in the European Research Group have spent this evening meeting with chief whip Julian Smith which is supposed to quell the threat of a government defeat tomorrow. The amendable motion that MPs will be voting on has gone from promising a 'Valentine's Day massacre' to being something rather boring, and back to threatening drama in the space of a few days. The reason for this change is that the motion isn't written to Brexiteers' satisfaction. It currently reads:
‘That this House welcomes the Prime Minister’s statement of 12 February 2019; reiterates its support for the approach to leaving the EU expressed by this House on 29 January 2019 and notes that discussions between the UK and the EU on the Northern Ireland backstop are ongoing.’
The problem the ERG has is that by supporting the approach expressed by the House on 29 January, MPs are effectively saying that no deal is off the table, thanks to the motion tabled by Caroline Spelman and Jack Dromey that MPs passed on that date. This was not a legally binding motion, but Spelman has argued that it is ‘morally binding’. Brexiteer Tories want tomorrow’s motion to make clear that no deal remains an option, arguing that otherwise Theresa May will have a much weaker hand in her dealings with Brussels."
I am glad to say that my own MP, who has been listed as a member of the ERG, has said categorically that there is no chance at all of a no-deal brexit happening. So we have a split, not only in parliament, not only in the Tory party, but also in the ERG party-within-a-party.