Exit from Brexit

The eu are going to have egg on their faces if they stand fast on maintaining the 4 freedoms and in the not too distant future borders start going up again in Europe.

I think the 'markets' reacted in their usual irrational fashion to a non story, Fennel. There is no 'exceptional deal' that could be made with the UK while the EU steadfastly sticks to the four pillars of the Single Market and no border in NI as their 'red lines' and the UK equally steadfastly sticks to theirs.. I believe Barnier reiterated that in the remarks that the 'markets' reacted to.

It's going down again today

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/pound-slips-as-barnier-says-eu-prepared-for-disorderly-brexit

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned before - some media report that Barnier is now prepared to make an exceptional deal with the UK.
Sterling /euro exchange rate improves as a result.
Perhaps the EU prefers the relatively stable UK economy and political situation to that of other more fragile EU states.

I do wonder if/when economic chaos is caused by Brexit, there will be any acknowledgment for leavers that it was a mistake, given that they are so keen on criticising remainers' 'fear tactics'.

GillT57
social turmoil
I think you need to look at what is happening in Germany, that's social turmoil
UKIP is more or less a spent force, how often do you hear or see the extreme right wing 'groups'
Whereas in Germany the Afg is gaining ground by the day.

Greta
Are you going to complain next time Varian puts up a link to Politico. Probably not.
joelsnan
Great link. Sums up the mood completely.

Indeed Nicenanny, I am a sufferer, and I am desperately worried about the implications of the social and economic turmoil that you voted for.

News today that Panasonic are moving their headquarters from UK to Amsterdam in October ahead of Brexit:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45351288

Joelsnan, why post a link to an article by Politico; an American political company? We could turn the tables and write an article about Leavers' EU-Angst; let's blame the EU for everything we are unhappy about. Let's not analyse our own governments' failings. Rule Britannia! Sadly, this 'Rule Britannia' has appeared a few times now on GN. It scares me.

Great article Joelsnan thanks for the link. A few sufferers on gransnet I think.

www.politico.eu/article/brexit-anxiety-disorder-britain-middle-class/

Under UK law the referendum result is advisory and not binding on Parliament, a large majority of whose members are opposed to leaving the EU.

As the constitutional lawyer Geoffrey Robertson QC points out: ‘Democracy in Britain doesn’t mean majority rule. It’s not the tyranny of the majority or the tyranny of the mob…It’s the representatives of the people, not the people themselves who vote for them.’

It is only when elected MPs vote in favour of a new bill to repeal the 1972 legislation that brought Britain into Europe that Article 50 can be invoked and divorce proceedings begin in earnest.

And that is unlikely to happen until after the Conservative party has elected a new prime minister who, in all probability, would call a general election to confirm the authority of parliament to vote on such a crucial issue.

The main opposition party, Labour, has already made moves to remove its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, on the grounds of his weak support of the party’s pro-European stance during the referendum campaign. And the Scottish Nationalists are likely to demand a new referendum on Independence should their country’s overwhelmingly pro-European vote be overruled by Brexit.

So no irretrievable move by Britain to leave the EU is likely to happen before this fall. Apart from anything else, the UK has virtually no trained negotiators to do a new deal with Europe or, indeed, other trading partners around the world, as everything has been done through the EU for the past 40 years.

www.gfmag.com/topics/blogs/uk-could-exit-brexit

MyCatsBonkers on Mumsnet has just summed uo the latest pronouncement from Theresa May.-

"So 'sunlit uplands' became

'the exact same benefits as we have now' which became

'adequate food supplies' which changed to

'enough lettuce' and now

'we won't all die'

It's not very encouraging. Where will we be by March next year? 'Some may die but not as many as in WW2 and we survived that'? Or 'the strong will feast on the flesh of the weak and Britain will be great again'?"

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3348747-So-relieved-to-hear-its-not-the-end-of-the-world?pg=1#prettyPhoto

We need a few more of the big car manufacturers to speak out as well. I wonder how many it will take before Brexit believers finally accept there may be a problem? BAe MD was dismissed as being part of Project Fear, Mark Carney was dismissed, many, many owners of logistics and transport companies, even Dominic Raab talked about (but carefully did not recommend) stockpiling food and drugs, how many more will it take before people realise?

Sadly the "people have spoken" juggernaut seems to roll on without any regard for possible changes in public opinion; so much for democracy, the attitude of government seems to be "you shall leave because you're not going to have a final say"

Britain’s biggest carmaker Jaguar Land Rover has joined dissenters to a “hard Brexit”, saying that Britain leaving the EU without a trade deal would cost it 1.2 billion pounds ($1.59 billion) a year and curtail its future UK operations. Chief Executive Ralf Speth said the car market needed “free and frictionless trade with the EU and unrestricted access to the single market” in order to ensure future success.

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-jaguar-ld-rvr-at/carmaker-jaguar-says-bad-brexit-would-mean-it-could-not-stay-in-uk-idUKKBN1JU2T1

I believe that the worm has turned in the Brexit debate. There now seems to be a new realisation of just what Brexit will mean for the country, especially a "no deal" Brexit

Many who supported the leave cause now seem to have changed their minds as the full facts of Brexit have been drawn out in the many months since the referendum.

I feel that if any Brexit occurs at all, it will be in name only.

Either lying deliberately, Varian, to protect their interests.
Or carelessly irresponsible, caring nothing for the future of the people they're supposed to represent.
Or both.

Well spotted Maizied for your post of 15.05.11.

This is indeed chilling but only yet another example of the leavers' lies.

Sometimes they have even told the truth, but later deny it. How blind or stupid would you have to be to trust them an inch?

Just read it Buffybee. And anyone else who thinks it will all be ok, or that the trusted wonderful government won't allow anything awful to happen, or that the delivery of goods will not be disrupted...... just read it and weep.

Did the answer satisfy you?

No I didn't read the blog post Maize thought I'd just ask as question.
And now you've answered it, so I'm off!

What every single other country in the world has is trading agreements with other countries; some in large blocs. It is an illusion that other countries trade solely under WTO rules. They get away from them as fast as they ;possibly can.

Did you even read the blog post, Buffybee?

The WTO Option advocates will tell you that countries such as China, the United States and Australia all trade with the EU without formal trade agreements, and therefore operate under WTO rules. They don't have these problems so why would the UK? The answer, however, is remarkably simple. These countries don't rely solely on WTO rules.

Why would trading under WTO Terms be a disaster for the UK and yet it isn't for all the other countries in it already?
What do these countries have that we do not?

This is interesting. An article from the '*Leave EU*' website, published in Feb 2017, but now, for some unaccountable reason it has been taken down. However, copies were saved...

It's about what a disaster for the UK trading under solely WTO terms would be (as we would have to if we left with no deal).

Last paragraph:

One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government should allow it. The option should be rejected.

leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128