58 Brexit Impact Studies

So the committee is to decide whether Davis is in contempt, highly unlikely given that the majority of votes are Tory.

Couldn’t anyone else like the speaker donsomething?

As a teacher, I could write a book about the excuses kids made to me and colleagues over the years about why they have not done their homework. A lot of grannies died, and many cats run over- and aliens, lots of aliens - but they were just kids ... and that homework was not going to make much difference either to me, them ... or the country- so....

"David, have you done that homework?"
"Yes sir, but it's a bit messy, I need to prepare a fair copy."
"Very well. Bring it next week."
next week
"David, where's that homework?"
"The dog ate it."
"So write it out again."
......
"David, have you actually done that homework?"
<very quiet voice>"No sir."

Could it actually much much worse - and the Brexit assessments do exist- but are so dire the GVT has sacrificed DD to hide them? I would not put anything past them at the moment.

Never mind. Before too long one of our probrexit posters will be along to tell us to stop being negative and that everything will be fine.
That's about as reassuring as it gets!

I think even they are stunned into silence ...

I doubt it, jura, I think that they're not really interested.

We've already had one, on another thread, tell us that impact assessments are a waste of time and money.

The fact that Davis has lied and lied and lied, and then lied some more, seems to be all fair enough to the Leavers. So long as we get clear of that evil old EU corruption in UK politics matters not a whit.

We've already had one, on another thread, tell us that impact assessments are a waste of time and money.

Why don't you explain to everyone why they're not?
Any evidence that they have predicted anything as complex as the impact of Brexit on a particular sector of an economy with a degree of accuracy that would enable appropriate planning to happen?

Why do you think Davis walks around with his leather portfolio all the time, when there's nothing in it?

Because Brexit is so complex it needs to have impact assessments.
Because it's complex it needs more depth in the studies.

If I were a businessman today, I would be very worried.
The car industry will now know that the government doesn't take it seriously; Nissan, etc., will be looking to move.

It’s because they want a hard Brexit at any cost that they haven’t bothered with any research on the impact in the economy. Most forecasts suggest the impact will be negative so that’s why they don’t want to even think about that possibility as it will weaken their position even further. Davis has showed himself to be dim and incompetent as well as a liar. Before he said he wasn’t revealing anything as it was sensitive information which would hamper negotiations, guess what - there is no information sensitive or otherwise, and no plans.

So primrose you asked why impact assessment are not a waste of time and money.

Let me answer that question by reversing the question, so

Do you think that say for example flood defences should be built without assessing the impact on the human and wild population. Whether the vast quantity of money needed would be spent wisely, and exactly the best and most effective defence?

Do you think that fundamental changes in the tax system, or even minor changes that will affect either the individual or business should be carried out without understanding the impact these changes may have both to those paying the tax and the revenue to the government?

Do you think for example that changing the fundamental agreement between north and south Ireland should be carried out without understanding the impact of this fundamental change?

Do you think that we should change fundamentally the way goods are moved from our country to the EU without understanding the impact on all the various sectors ?

If you answer that no impact assessments are necessary, then you are saying that no prior knowledge is needed before anything major is undertaken.

Imagine the chaos!! Imagine how ridiculous that sounds.

Listening to Grayling who is doing the rounds to try to shore up the government - he clearly doesn’t understand what impact assessments are used for either.

As a teacher when organising a trip I had to do risk assessments as part of the planning. I suppose they were a waste of time as well, who cares whether I was prepared for taking a group of children out of school after all you can’t predict the future can you?

The question is, did he lie before or is he lying now?
Have they done them, and they are so appalling that he doesn't want to be responsible for them?
How will we know?

We won’t I don’t think unless they are leaked. I suspect it is more likely to be incompetence and ignorance , because assuming that they actually exist assumes a level of ability that has never been in evidence since this whole sorry mess began.

When did he lie? It was definitely him.

Except that's not what he said dj
Sack him for being an idiot by all means but fake news doesn't help anyone.

ww in all your examples you know what you're modelling. There are plenty of example of people who have done the same and the techniques have been refined for many years.
My point is why is a guess fed into a computer model any better than a guess that is not? You seem to think it is but you don't seem to know why. It's easy to give examples about simple things in everyday life that people do all the time - do you really think this is comparable to a risk assessment for a school trip? Good grief!

But you see it isn’t a guess that is the point. There is a degree of knowledge and understanding, which you don’t seem to recognise.

What you also may not know that in certain areas, and impact assessment is a legal requirement.

As the whole debacle unfolds, whether is was lying then (again and again, and again - on at least 5 official occasions re the impact assessements) - I believe it is increasingly likely that is actually lying NOW. He has been wanting out for a while- and I would not be surprised if he has not volunteered to take all the flack to protect Mrs May and the whole GVT.

One thing is for sure, this is not 'just' about DD - if he has been lying for over a year about the impact assessments- Mrs May and the whole GVT knew about it- and let it run so they are in it with him up to their neck. He was not acting alone.

Primrose- whether impact assessments are a good idea and good value for time and money, etc- is a debatable question. For another thread perhpas.

But totally irrelevant here- as we the public and the relevant committees, have been told again that they existed, in excruciating detail even - the issue here is about the BLATANT LYING - especially to our Sovereing Parliamentary Representatives.

Umunna has written to the speaker about the lies, and the speaker in turn has requested letters from alll MPs who wish to pursue the matter.

Watch it fall into party lines. Self serving party members above national interest once again.

do you really think this is comparable to a risk assessment for a school trip? Good grief!

No, it is so much more important that there isn't an adjective sufficiently expressive that I can use to describe just how important it is.

I did have a bit of respect for your views, Primrose but this sudden descent into La La land thinking leads me to think that I need to tap you on the shoulder with my rolled up copy of The Sun and say "You are Jacob Rees-Mogg and I claim my 5 guineas".

Well if its important for a school trip , surely its much more important for a reorganisation that is going to cost billions and affect everyone in the whole country, much of it negatively?

"One thing is for sure, this is not 'just' about DD - if he has been lying for over a year about the impact assessments- Mrs May and the whole GVT knew about it- and let it run so they are in it with him up to their neck. He was not acting alone."
Couldn't agree more, Jura

The only alternative to that scenario that I can think of is that May is stumbling along in total ignorance, which for a PM would indicate both gross stupidity and dereliction of duty, and ought to be a criminal offence!

There is a petition doing the rounds asking for him to be sacked. But I have not signed it - he ALONE is not responsible, and he actually wants out- as he knows he is rumbled and totally out of his depths. Getting him sacked would just be a smoke screen to protect the GVT- and detract from the Impact Assessments. I am quite sure that they DO exist- the GVT has been ordered by the House to release them- and saying they do not exist, and sacrifice DD on the way (who wants out anyway) - is the only way forward to stop this. There is a lot more to this story than meets the eye I am convinced.