Are we approaching another lockdown?

My granddaughter, like many 2 year olds apparently, has undeveloped speech thanks to lockdown. Her parents are now in touch with a speech therapist and are receiving help, but it's a widespread problem I believe. In our family we have also had two job losses and one death due to covid. I wish it would go away but a scientist on this morning's Start the Week suggested it is very likely that worse is to come in the form of other animal-connected viruses that are cropping up in Russia and Saudi Arabia. I am trying to stay positive.

I listened to a piece on radio 4 called the jump. It was about the virus / viruses. They estimate that there are at least 1,000,000 such viruses out there.
We have to accept that we will have another pandemic at some time. But next time ( hopefully) we will be more prepared.

I also listened to that programme Meryl I turned it on towards the end. It was fascinating and I will listen in full later.
I did catch the piece about what if the total bird population succumbed to another form of Avian ‘flu. It was a sobering thought. I do not doubt we’re a long way from being out of the pandemic.

I feel very lucky to be able to see my DD because she is the single parent of a foster child and has just added two adopted children to her household. However I haven't seen my other three DC or two GC for a year.
More and more people seem to be feeling that the law doesn't apply to them, can they not see that this wretched pandemic can only be ended by avoiding spreading it through contact and travel?

Of course "We'll have to learn to live with it". like all other viruses. We can't eradicate it and we can't stay locked up for ever.

I don’t really understand what “learning to live with it” means. The Covid viruses we have circulating at the moment are highly infectious, constantly mutating, and virulent. Clever little things.

The vaccines we have now are effective against some, but not all of the mutations. Vaccines need to constantly keep pace, or we will continue to experience infection surges and deaths.

Call me stupid, but unless this virus mutates to become less serious, as is the common cold, I can’t envisage living with it as we do for some less virulent infections.

I do not think suppression is the way, but to aim for elimination and dealing with any imported outbreaks as they occur. For this to happen we definitely need more effective test and trace than we have at present.

Sorry to keep on about this but it is important to be accurate.

All viruses are constantly mutating, but this one appears to be mutating more slowly that others. That doesn't mean its not a problem, but it's not mutating out of control. And there is evidence that some of the mutations are tending towards the same end point, which would make vaccine development easier. Not an expert in this by any means, maybe someone else could elaborate if they know more.

The vaccines we have at the moment are effective against all known mutations. The vaccines may be less effective against some but that does not mean that they are not effective. They still work.

I agree with you Greeneyedgirl that elimination and contract tracing is the best way out of it.

(And before anyone starts shouting, elimination isn't the same as eradication.)

Alegrias
Thank goodness for a balanced and sensible post.

....vaccines we have now are effective against some, but not all of the mutations.
Apart from being wrong, it seems to me that everyone thinks they are a scientist now. This is absolutely not what the scientists have said. Read the post from Alegrias to see what the scientists have actually said.

Many thinking we will be in another lockdown by august as they opened the schools too soon if only it had been left another month..soon as the numbers reduce the flood gates open

Until countries stand firm the full time needed we are not going to rid the World of this or any future episodes and thousands more will die needlessly.
Not my words but from a top pandemic experts.

Our government will not listen to those who know!!!

Call me stupid, but unless this virus mutates to become less serious, as is the common cold, I can’t envisage living with it as we do for some less virulent infections.

The so-named Spanish influenza was virulent and very contagious, the second mutated strain being more deadly than the first. The third wave was deadly but people were by then travelling less so it did not spread so rapidly. Of course, vaccines were not then available.
It was an H1N1 type virus and its mutated descendants are still with us.
Viruses mutate or can disappear and vaccines have been developed since those early days.

The more people who are vaccinated, the fewer cases of COVID we have, the less virus there is in circulation, the less the opportunities for it to mutate.

No, I am not making myself a scientist. But a very eminent scientist involved with COVID research in this country said the above on the radio, not a report. I heard him say it.

Knowledge is also cumulative. We went into this pandemic totally unprepared, it is unlikely this will happen with the next one.

The vaccines against COVID have been developed and rolled out so fast because they have been able to take advantages of medical research into vaccines that has been ongoing. As Isaac Newton said. If I have seen further, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants So with the next pandemic, vaccine development will probably be even faster because of what has been learnt in developing the COVID vaccine, with all the implications that will have on the spread of any disease.

The vacinne is obviously having a positive effect
My concern now is the delay we must get the younger population done as soon as possible they will not stay in once things start to open and quite frankly who can blame them

I apologise for my earlier post, which was my error. the vaccines we have now are effective against some, but not all of the mutations. I posted in a rush and meant to say that the vaccines are effective against some but less so against all mutations. I’m sorry if I misled because I think vaccine development has been impressive, and UK virologists have excelled at rapidly identifying mutations arising here.

I do believe that it is important to aim towards elimination with efficient track and trace to reduce spread which gives the virus less opportunity to mutate. Vaccinations have been a huge success and are developing constantly to deal with emerging mutations, but I think it’s a bit early to be complacent.

I do not pretend to be an expert but am nerdy and interested in, and try and follow the latest research.

Greeneyedgirl Thank you for your post. Apologies if I upset you. I think you’re thinking is similar to mine in actual fact.

rosie1959

The vacinne is obviously having a positive effect
My concern now is the delay we must get the younger population done as soon as possible they will not stay in once things start to open and quite frankly who can blame them

This is also a concern of mine rosie. We can do without a delay.

The forty and overs are being “jabbed” in S E Essex now, which is good news.

I am no expert but common sense says WORLD WIDE PANDEMICS is screaming that this is going nowhere for a wee while yet. We all just need to follow the advice of the scientists and learn to adapt how we behave day by day to minimise the risks worldwide.

My daughter ( 50) and my son in law (42) have been vaccinated.
South east Essex.

Our family will have had both doses by May apart from my son and son in law who are in their thirtys
We were going fine until the delay from India and the whole EU fiasco who seem to be resorting to piracy just because they couldn't get their act together

Thanks maddyone. I understand where you’re coming from, I also get annoyed about misleading posts, so do feel mortified when its me that’s erred!

We were going fine until the delay from India and the whole EU fiasco who seem to be resorting to piracy just because they couldn't get their act together.
Similar here Rosie our mass vaccination centre is being closed for a few weeks as they haven't got enough vaccine. They were doing thousands every week.

One of the problems is that the Europeans never ask for help.
They demand it, with the use of threats to back up the directive.

They define European co operation as a one way street, where we are expected to help them but if we need any kind of assistance, they shrug and say it is the price of Brexit.

The bottom line is that the British people have had enough of it.

To answer the OP. I don't think there will be the same level of lockdown as we have seen over the last year but there may be a third wave as cases in the EU rise and it 'washes up on our shores'. This time I hope the wave will be a ripple rather than a tsunami.

Oh I do hope you’re right AGAA4

I meant not about a third wave, but that it will be a ripple if we do get it.