I remember the 1988-95 slide only too well. A lot of repossessions.
Spoke to an insider the other day and he tells me that the market is unlikely to pick up until April 2026. He was unable to reveal his sources but he hinted it was from the "high ups".
Your guess is as good as mine, but I suggest it is to do with fiscal policy decisions due to an expected global recession over the next few years. What we are experiencing is not confined to the U.K., it is global. The housing markets in the USA and China are already in total disarray. At any rate most "housing experts" are suggesting that an upturn is unlikely much before Spring 2025 so his timescale may well be right.
The thing to remember is that whilst corrections are necessary from time to time long deep slides are never good news. The human cost is high, repossessions, bankruptcies, divorces and failed relationships, loss of opportunities to move house for jobs, schools etc.
It's not just housing that's affected but many of the ancillary jobs, shops and trades that are linked to house moves. A lot of failed businesses and redundancies are on the horizon. The knock on effect to local economies where prices might drop as much as 40% will be catastrophic.
The people most likely to benefit from falling prices are cash buyers and the "big boys" - Banks and financial instructions, corporate landlords and the like who invest in property because with interest rate rises the "affordability" factor comes into play.
If mortgage rates are three times higher than they were a couple of years ago then mortgage payments will also rise accordingly affecting what is termed as "affordability". This means that banks will cut back on how much they will lend, thus the FTBs purchasing power will be so much less because they won't be able to borrow as much as they could a couple of years ago when mortgage rates were around 2 to 3% rather than the current 6 to 7%. So, even with lower prices, many FTBs will still struggle. It's a vicious circle really.
I'm guessing I am coming over all doom and gloom. Sorry, but I'm just being realistic.
Yes some houses will still sell, but the volume of transactions will be heavily impacted. The houses that do sell will be the ones which are deemed to be the best value for money, irrespective of their condition or whether or not they have been "modernised". My best guess is that actually it is the non modernised ones that will be snapped up by cash buyers who are happy to take on a project. So I would advise most sellers not to spend too much money to get their house "market ready", certainly not any major works such as new kitchens etc. A lick of paint where required, and a few nice plants in the front garden for colour and kerb appeal and leave it at that.
My advice to anyone who wants/needs to sell is get your house on the market sooner rather than later. The longer you wait the worse the slide will get. Also, as I said before, be very competitive with your pricing to try and stay ahead of the curve, otherwise a £10k drop every couple of months or so won't even keep pace with the downturn.
As I said I am sorry to be the bearer of such grim tidings but I have lived and worked through several property slides so I know the devastation they can cause. There will be winners and losers, the trick is to be on the winning side.
Btw. If you or any of the your loved ones are worried about your current mortgage payments, please contact your lenders before you get in trouble. They are likely to be more helpful and come up with a rescue package if they are contacted before the arrears start mounting up.
Good luck everyone.